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Inside Milk

Milk protein up, milk fat down

16 January 2020 - Wouter Baan

The trend that shaped the dairy market in 2019 will continue at the beginning of this year. Milk fat prices feel weak, while the valuation of milk protein is on the rise.

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The price of skimmed milk powder continues to increase cautiously in mid-January. While last week the upper limit was €2.600 per tonne, this has now become the lower limit. Among other things, sales to distant destinations (Algeria, Indonesia and China) have improved, traders indicate. 

The higher prices motivate to powder skimmed milk concentrate. Producers confirm that powder towers are running at full capacity and that makes skimmed milk concentrate popular. The DCA quotation therefore increases by €90 to €2.130 per tonne. Further price increases are possible, because concentrate still costs well compared to milk powder.

Global market perspective
In terms of competition on the global market, Europe is between New Zealand and the US, expressed in dollars. New Zealand has a logistical advantage in China, which justifies a higher price. In Europe, further price increases are possible on paper, provided that American prices also improve. Because of the trade deal it is possible that China will shift its focus more to American dairy. However, substantive details of the deal have hardly been given (yet), making it difficult to outline the consequences. 

Press milk fat
Looking at the milk fat, we identify price pressure. Butter prices have generally dropped this week by €50 to €355 per 100 kilos. The cream price - quite unexpectedly - even fell, the DCA quotation fell by €180 to €3.870 per tonne. There is little confidence in the butter price in the market. This dampens the demand for cream.  

Cheese prices are currently the most stable factor. The undertone on the market is positive, because inventories are not large. The DCA quotation for Gouda therefore increases by one cent to €3,07 per kilo. The price of Edam remains the same at €3,04 per kilo.

View the latest liquid dairy quotes here 
View the latest cheese quotations here

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