Until 2030, the average milk price is 36 euros

Until 2030, Wageningen Livestock Research estimates the average milk price in our country at €36 per 100 kilos, including bonuses and supplementary payments. With an annual milk yield of 9.000 kilos, this equates to € 3.240 per cow. The researchers estimate that sustainability costs will increase in the coming years.

The long-term milk price forecast, which WUR, in consultation with an expert panel from the sector, bases on predictions from the European Commission, thus remains the same as previous forecasts, despite the corona crisis having significantly disrupted the global dairy market. The researchers estimate that corona will put pressure on the milk price in the coming years, but that yields will rise again in the medium term.

Sustainability costs are increasing
The costs will increase due to the integration of the climate, biodiversity and land-related targets on Dutch dairy farms. According to the researchers, it is advisable to take this into account in the budgets. Without explicitly mentioning this, the researchers conclude that the return in dairy farming is lower. After all, the average milk price is not increasing. 

Manure disposal costs differ per region
The costs for milk sales vary between €5 and €14 per cubic meter, the extra costs for cubic meters to be processed are €1,50 to €3. According to the researchers, the relatively large bandwidth is a result of the differences per region. The fertilizer price forecast assumes that the derogation will be maintained in the coming years. Whether this is actually the case remains to be seen. Although we are almost halfway through 2020, the Netherlands still does not have the green light for the broader manure standards from Brussels for this year. The European Commission has indicated that a decision will be made about this in mid-June.

The Wageningen forecast is used by dairy farmers, financiers and the government to make or assess company budgets, among other things.

Wouter Job

Wouter Baan is Head of Meat & Dairy at BoerenbusinessAt DCA Market Intelligence, he focuses on dairy, pork, and meat markets. He also monitors (business) developments within agribusiness and interviews CEOs and policymakers.

w.baan@boerenbusiness. Nl

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