Can Russia do without the white motor Belarus?

Belarus is an agricultural economy par excellence. It is not without reason that Dictator Lukashenko visited the Belarusian tractor factories in the capital Minsk this week in a last-ditch attempt to subdue the people.

Didn't go down
Not so long ago in 2012, he invested tens of millions in more than 100 milking parlors of the Israeli brand Afimilk to modernize dairy farming, which is an important pillar of the rural economy.

After the fall of communism, the former dairy state of the Soviet Union was sucked into the economic disaster that followed in the years that followed under Boris Yeltsin in Russia, but the country did not go under. Even now, poverty does not seem to be the main motivation for the population to want to free themselves from the last remaining classical dictator in Europe. Corruption and the use of violence against the protesting population appear to have been the fuse in the powder keg.

Major dairy exporter
In recent years, the dairy sector in the country has even developed prosperously. Year after year, the milk supply increased to a volume of more than 7 billion, says Belarus dairy expert Jurgen Jansen of ZuivelNL. This year, milk production grew by an additional 6,6% in the first half of the year. Per capita of the population, 9 million in total, the former USSR state farms, which are still used in more or less the same way as in Soviet times, produce even more milk than ours. 

The climate for dairy farming is also favorable, especially in the north of the country, thanks to ample rainfall. Partly because of this, Belarus was able to enter the 21^th century to become one of the largest dairy exporters in the world. The vast majority is exported to Russia and its Asian client states. It is not known what part of dairy exports is destined for destinations other than these countries, although the Belarusian government says that no fewer than 55 countries worldwide are supplied with their dairy products.

Intertwined with motherland Russia
The fact is that 90% of Russian dairy imports come from Belarus. Belarus has been functioning in a customs union with Russia and Kazakhstan since 2010. Russia has also already warned that the neighboring country cannot do without mutual trade. Russia can do just fine without Belarus, but Belarus cannot do without its mother country Russia, is the tone of the statements. President Putin has shown that he will not accept a radical break with Russia, while the European Union is taking a less firm position. Only Poland has expressly spoken out in favor of the departure of dictator Lukashenko.

Given these political power relations, it is not obvious that reforms in Belarus will lead to a radical break with big brother. The West cannot afford a second Ukraine either.

Iintegration in Russia?
According to Belarus dairy expert Jürgen Jansen of ZuivelNL, not much will change in the short term in the current trade relations in Eastern Europe and Russia in the dairy world. "The current political development is not necessarily anti-Russian. It will probably lead to a change in leadership at some point, but does not necessarily mean that the country will end up in a conflict with its major neighbor. In fact, it could further integration can easily be achieved. Russia will probably never allow a move towards the EU and NATO, even if there is support for it."