China is currently importing large volumes of whey powder to feed the rapidly growing pig population. European dairy exports clearly benefit from this, although the higher export volumes are not reflected in ...
In July, China imported no less than 63.900 tons of whey powder, according to figures from Chinese customs. This is almost 65% more than in the same month last year and also the highest monthly import volume in the past 10 years. Large volumes were also imported in the months before. Between May and July the monthly average was 57.600 tons.
Rapid growth of pig herd
The Chinese appetite for whey powder is related to the growing pig population, as whey powder is an important component of animal feed rations. After the devastation caused by African swine fever, which almost halved the pig herd, there has been growth again in recent months.
At the end of August, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture announced that the number of pigs in July had increased sharply. Compared to the same month in 2019, the ministry counted 13,1% more pigs, although exact numbers are not stated. Compared to June, there was a growth of almost 5%. Assuming that China has about 350 million pigs, this amounts to an increase of around 15 million pigs in one month.
The import of whey powder can be seen as a sign that the pig herd is growing. Although the growth rates differ, the increased demand for whey powder confirms that China has more pigs to feed. When China's pig herd started shrinking 2 years ago, also plummeted afterwards the import of whey powder.
European whey powder exports on the rise
European export figures for whey powder for July are not yet known, but they are for the first half of 2020. Over that period, China imported 273.000 whey powder. Of this, 42% came from the European Union, of which the Netherlands is an important (if not the largest) supplier. European sales of whey powder are therefore showing growth figures, increasing by 6% to 13 tons in the first 340.000 months of this year. The same growth rate can be attributed to American exports of whey powder, which amounted to 230.000 tons. European exports to China increased by 35% to just under 125.000 tons.
The prices of whey powder do not reveal Chinese hunger. The picture has been fluctuating in recent months. In February and March, a rapid price drop occurred due to the unfolding corona crisis. The DCA quotation of whey powder (feed) then fell by 22% to €647 per tonne. After that there was a strong recovery, but in recent weeks prices fell again.