Significant decline in the number of dairy farms until 2030

Until 2030, the number of dairy farms in the Netherlands will decrease by a third to approximately 10.650 farms. The total amount of milk will remain the same until 2024 and then rise slightly until 2030. The average size of a Dutch dairy farm increases from 101 to 139 dairy cows.

This is shown by calculations from Wageningen UR (WUR) based on current legislation and regulations. The expectation expressed by WUR with this is the so-called base scenario. It also outlines 3 other future scenarios where Dutch dairy farming can move towards. In this case, the number of dairy farms decreases even more than in the base scenario.

In the base scenario, some of the dairy farmers will stop in the next 10 years due to age and the lack of a successor. It is expected that some of the dairy farms will have to stop because they can no longer meet their financial obligations. "A wave of quitters is approaching," notes Frans Keurentjes, chairman of the FrieslandCampina cooperative. "To young farmers to take over all of that. While the interest of successors is declining due to the financial situation of dairy farms and other matters."

Calculate models
In the basic scenario, dairy farming remains within the phosphate ceiling and the nitrogen ceiling and the agreements from the Climate Agreement appear to be feasible, reports WUR. The uncertainties lie in the nitrogen file, the fluctuations in the milk price and the level of the interest to be paid. The effects of, for example, the forthcoming Nitrogen Act, including, for example, external netting and the future manure policy are not included in these calculations.

That is also not possible, says Jan-Pieter Tanis, director of Corporate Affairs at FrieslandCampina. The dairy group is the client of the study. "You cannot make calculations based on expectations. We can add additional policy to the models that WUR has made in order to perform new calculations." 

The 3 other future scenarios, the so-called explorative scenarios, are based on possible future social changes. The aim of these is to explore which further development directions the sector can take in the coming decade, explains WUR. In the first scenario (encouraging nature-inclusive) there is more attention from the market and society for nature-inclusive dairy farming.

Other investment opportunities
In the second scenario (hardcore free market), the emphasis is on producing reliable and cheap food and there are no additional requirements for nature and the environment. In the third scenario (more focus on yield and social requirements), dairy farmers do not maximize growth. The dairy farmer sets requirements for the income from the farm and also looks at other investment opportunities inside and outside the farm.

In these 3 scenarios, the number of dairy farms has decreased further in 2030 than in the base scenario. In 2 scenarios, the free market and the focus on income outside the dairy farm, the number of dairy farms will halve in the next 10 years. In addition, these scenarios lead to larger companies on average, which are on average significantly larger and more intensive in the free market scenario and more extensive in the nature-inclusive scenario. In the scenario in which dairy farmers focus less on growth, the total milk production decreases the most.

No worries or milk supply
FrieslandCampina indicates that it will include the developed future scenarios in the long-term strategy development and decision-making, for example in the assessment of investments in the field of required milk processing capacity.

Frans Keurentjes says he is not concerned about a possible declining supply of member milk. "A shock movement in the milk supply has an impact, but FrieslandCampina is prepared to respond to it." However, he does not mention how the dairy group will act in this.

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