The US dairy sector has been showing excellent export figures throughout the year. Whey and skimmed milk powder in particular are doing well, mainly due to Asian buying interest. What are the market expectations for the coming period?
In October, the US exported more than 200.000 tons of dairy products for the third time this year, which in itself is a large volume. Never before has so much been shipped in October. Sales of whey powder amounted to around 55.000 tons, no less than 64% more than the same month in 2019. Almost half of this is sold in China.
The country mainly uses whey powder as an ingredient in pig rations. The number of pigs is increasing rapidly again after the deforestation caused by African swine fever. Growth is expected to continue in the coming years, creating favorable prospects for American whey powder exports.
Price of whey powder up
In the first 10 months of this year, exports of whey powder amounted to 455.000 tons, almost a quarter more than in the same period last year. Prices are on the rise due to good exports. Since the summer, the American whey powder price has risen by more than $200 to $909 per tonne. The upward trend is expected to continue in the fourth quarter and early 2021. We have also been seeing higher whey powder prices in the Netherlands and Europe for a few weeks now, partly due to good sales in Asia.
Sales of skimmed milk powder increased by 8,6% to 76.700 tons in October. Here too, China is the driving force behind the growth figures. The corona crisis has apparently made the urgency of food security clear, because according to market parties, China has been building up stocks all year, including wheat and soybeans. Other countries in the important sales region of Southeast Asia, such as the Philippines, also import higher volumes. In the first 10 months of this year, the US exported 691.000 tons of skimmed milk powder, an increase of 22,5% compared to last year. The weaker US dollar is of course contributing to this increase.
Cheese exports are lagging behind
In contrast to powder products, the export of cheese is more difficult. In October, sales fell by 12,8% to 24.000 tons, which is probably a result of high cheese prices in the US. So far, export volumes in 2020 are in line with last year. European cheese exports are late strong growth figures seen on the world market.
American dairy exports are expected to set a volume record this year, which would be a great achievement given the corona crisis. A total of 1,7 million tons of dairy products were sold in the period January to October, 15% more than last year. The underlying export value increased by 12% to $5,5 billion.