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Inside US milk supply

US milk supply maintains rising trend

18 December 2020 - Jorine Cosse

Despite the periodic dip, American milk supply in November increased significantly compared to last year. This is partly due to a higher production per cow and a higher number of cows per farm. How do the milk prices react? 

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The American milk supply increased by 3,1% in November compared to 2019. The total amounts to around 7,8 million tons. The dip that can be seen compared to last month is a periodic phenomenon. Compared to the past year and the 5-year average, American dairy farmers have milked considerably more. The upward trend of recent years will continue in 2020, despite the corona crisis.

Milk price is rising
The American Class III milk price rose sharply in October, this increase will continue in November, but slightly less sharply. Last month, American dairy farmers received the equivalent of €43,47 per 100 kilos, an increase of almost 7,5% compared to October. The price is also holding up well compared to last year. Dairy farmers receive 6,54% more than in November 2019.

The Class II milk price is increasing, but only slightly compared to Class III. The milk price increases by only 1,15% to €25,81 per 100 kilos. The Class IV milk price even takes a step back in November. The price drops by 1,79% to €24,77. With the holidays approaching, there seems to be little progress in terms of a new increase.

The difference is expected to be in the processing direction of the milk. The milk traded under Class III is intended for cheese production. Since the cheese market in Chicago, among others, is on the rise, the milk price is benefiting from this. Class II milk is used for products such as yogurt and ice cream and Class IV is mainly used for butter and whole milk powder. These markets are not as booming as those for cheese, which is reflected in the prices.

Still more cows
Just like last month, the herd of American dairy farmers is increasing. In November, the number of cows increased by 13.000 animals compared to October, meaning that the 24 most important dairy states now have a total of 8,9 million cows. Production per cow also increased. On average, the cows gave more than 18 kilos more than in November last year. In a full month, a cow produced an average of 877,7 kilos of milk.

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