Inside Milk
What will UK milk supply do in the coming years?
The UK's milk supply has steadily increased in recent years. Growth is also expected to continue in the coming years. This is somewhat striking, because the dairy herd is actually decreasing. How does this work? And what is the milk supply reportedly going to be in three years' time?
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Government agency AHDB has calculated that milk production in Great Britain will reach almost 2023 billion liters by the 2024/12,75 season. That is an increase of 1,7% compared to the current season and is literally a plus of 210 million liters. "We have based this forecast on the trends we see in yield improvements, farm size, the number of inseminations and the number of young cattle," the research body writes.
The greatest growth is expected to be visible from the 2021/2021 season to the 2022/2023 season. The milk supply is expected to increase by 1,2%. "This is partly due to the increase in the number of young cattle in 2020. These animals will then enter the dairy herd in the 2022/2023 season."
Declining dairy herd
A contrary trend is that the dairy herd is expected to decline in the coming years and has declined in recent years. The British livestock population has fallen by an average of around 3% per year over the past 2,5 years. "Although our expectation is that the entire livestock herd will decline, that decline will be less pronounced. We assume an average decline of approximately 3% per year for the next 2 years."
At the same time, yields per cow are expected to continue to improve, by an average of 2,3% per year. That percentage is comparable to recent years. "The improvement in yield outweighs the decrease in livestock, which still results in an overall increase in production," the researchers said.