German milk supply this year is likely to be the smallest volume since 2017, but a recovery in milk production does not seem likely next year either. Producing more produces too little added value. Only in Schleswich-Holstein does the supply seem to stabilize somewhat.
This is what ZMB director Monica Wohlfarth reports in a report about the current state of affairs in dairy, which has been published by the German Milchindustrieverband (MIV). In 2020, German milk supply peaked at 31,8 billion kilos.
According to Wohlfahrt, German dairy farming has long been disconnected from developments on the European market. In the EU as a whole, approximately 2015% more milk was added between 2021 and 5,7, while in Germany only 0,7% more milk was added in the same period.
The structure of German dairy farming has changed considerably. The dairy herd has shrunk significantly. At its peak in 2014, 4,3 million dairy cows were counted. Since then the pile has steadily shrunk. Last year, a good 3,9 million cows were counted. Of these, 2,2 million were on farms with more than a hundred cows, while more than 1,7 million were on smaller farms.
The number of farms with more than a hundred cows is still increasing, but since 2018 the larger stables have no longer really grown in size. Meanwhile, milk production per cow appears to be stagnating, reports the MIV.
This latter development is partly motivated by the sharply increasing costs of milk production, while the milk price has not risen, especially not in the years from 2018 to 2020.
The low yields prevent farmers from investing more money in increasing the production of their cows. According to Wohlfahrt, German dairy farmers are not the only ones who suffer from this. Farmers in the Netherlands, France and some countries outside the EU (for example the US) are also struggling with this problem. Due to good global demand for milk products and therefore rising payment prices, a solution to this appears to be gradually emerging.