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Analysis Milk

Price violence in liquid dairy due to moderate supply

27 January 2022 - Klaas van der Horst

The seasonally increasing, yet lagging availability of milk continues to cause price violence, especially in the liquid dairy market. The prices of raw milk and concentrate in particular are rising sharply, cream is moving a little more slowly.

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Across the board, protein is in higher demand than fat. Compared to last week, the prices of cream and butter also increased this week. The cream price is slightly more than the butter price. Yet many traders feel that the market for milk fat is under pressure. Buyers are very cautious and there seems to be little interest in putting product in storage. According to them, there is no real direction in the market. The latter may be true. Buyers only cover their short-term needs. Prices are still high, but a look at the futures market shows that there is little optimism. There is nothing to hedge for butter at the current price level.

Then the protein-rich products: skimmed milk concentrate steals the show this week, with a €185,00, or 5,79% higher quotation at DCA. Various parties even report that product is sold for more than €3.500 per tonne of dry material finished work. It is not worth making skimmed milk powder from it. Cheese comes a little closer, but in the vast majority of cases it is used in fresh consumer products. Greece is also a big buyer.

The market for skimmed milk powder is relatively stable. Prices for whole milk powder rose considerably this week, moving slightly more towards the price level of Oceania. In the meantime, the whey powder market continues to grow, with the feed product making an additional contribution.

The cheese market remains stable. Prices continue to rise steadily, helped by a still relatively tight milk supply and good sales. The DCA quotations for mozzarella and Cheddar rose faster than those for Gouda and Edam cheese. But these latter types of cheese also record particularly high prices from a historical perspective.

The same applies to unlisted cheeses such as Emmentaler. for this, prices are moving towards €5,00 per kilo.

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