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Analysis Beef

Will the rising trend in the price of slaughter beef be broken?

5 May 2022 - Stef Wissink

It looks more and more like beef prices have peaked. In Germany there has been price pressure for several weeks and price corrections also seem imminent in the Netherlands, insiders have reported.

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In the week before Easter, German purchasing quotes, especially for beef bulls, were scaled back somewhat and there has also been some price pressure in recent weeks. The luxury cuts of beef are more difficult to sell and it is still noticeable in the sector that consumers seem to make price-conscious choices. The result is that the payment prices of milked cows and luxury beef bulls are relatively close to each other. 

Summit reached
Particularly in the luxury segment, no further price increases appear to be able to be passed on within the chain. Consumers are struggling with high inflation across the board and seem to be paying less for 'expensive' beef less often. However, very tight supply made rising prices possible for a long time.

Slaughterers also had to go along with the increases to get enough cattle on the hook. At the moment, however, cattle traders sense a less heated battle for cattle. This week the first slaughterhouse quotations will probably take a step down, both for sausage cows and beef cattle. Most livestock market quotations for cattle remained stable last week, only slaughter cows in Bunnik were able to record a plus.

In the meantime, the supply of cattle appears to remain low but will not tighten further. In recent months, the number of slaughters has fluctuated around last year's level.

Base remains firm
According to traders, this small supply ensures that there is no need to fear an erosion of the basis under the strong sentiment. The current phase seems to mainly mean a correction to the current very high price level. It therefore does not seem likely that beef (meat) prices will immediately fall sharply.

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