The DCA dairy quotations took another step up this week. This time it was really visible across the board, without exceptions. Skimmed milk concentrate was again the strongest climber.
However, trading was quite calm and the volumes traded were small. Partly for this reason, the impression prevails among various players in the market that most prices have remained virtually stable, which on closer inspection does not appear to be entirely justified.
care about sentiment
In percentage terms, in most cases these are fairly small price increases. While many parties also take into account that sentiment can turn just like that, due to either a drop in demand or external pressure. In this context, particular reference is made to the butter market and the milk powder market.
Import product lurking
The DCA quotation for butter now stands at almost €7.300 per tonne and thus remains at a high level. Whether that situation will last long is a matter of gamble. in Poland there is some pressure on the prices of both butter and cream. This is partly because Ukrainian dairy can now enter the EU tax-free. It will be in small volumes and it has to be an EU-worthy product, but it can push European prices down a bit. In addition, New Zealand's product is on its way.
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The New Zealand butter price is in US dollars per tonne, so not directly comparable with the DCA butter rating, but it is lower.
Milk powder prices in the EU will not come under direct pressure from New Zealand product, but with the latest price increase, European milk powder is again becoming more expensive compared to the world market, while the market does need exports to stay healthy, both producers believe. as traders.
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A comparison between the DCA listing and the GDT, for skimmed milk powder. European product, calculated in dollars, is not competitive on the world market compared to New Zealand or other product.
Drying costs are skyrocketing
This would mean that skimmed milk powder (and other types of powder) would have to become cheaper in order to continue exporting. Producers meanwhile complain that they have to pay more for their powder because the drying costs are skyrocketing. In Germany, powder makers need an average €300 per tonne higher price to make up for all the increased costs, it has recently been calculated.
Supply peak over and upcoming holidays
In terms of price development, the cheese market shows approximately the same picture as the milk powder market, but is otherwise even calmer if possible.
But while taking into account falling dairy prices, milk supply in the EU remains tight, especially now that the spring supply has passed its peak. In addition, it can also happen that many buyers want to insure themselves of sufficient product before the holiday period. Prices can therefore just as easily continue to rise as they will fall.