Politics Nitrogen crisis
Poll: 'BBB can become the largest party in the Netherlands'
The resistance to the announced nitrogen measures by the cabinet does not seem to be limited to farmers only, but also among citizens. BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) won no less than 26 seats in the weekly poll by Maurice de Hond today (Sunday 18 June). This makes the party of leader Caroline van der Plas virtually the second party in the Netherlands, only three seats behind the VVD. According to De Hond, BBB has the potential to become the largest party in the Netherlands in the upcoming elections of the Provincial Council in nine months.
In an explanation of the poll, De Hond speaks of an imminent historic political shift, especially with a view to the elections for the Provincial Council in March 2023. "It has only happened a few times that in the polls into political preference, which I over the past 45 years, the shift was not only a very significant one, but also foreshadowed something much bigger, either what happened next in politics or what was to happen in the next election. to have happened this week." And later: "The electoral forces that are now emerging may well be the first shocks that the seismograph indicates for a major earthquake in political Netherlands."
Gigantic advance
BBB gains four seats from the eventful past 'nitrogen week', with the farmers' protest in Stroe on Wednesday, June 22. Last week, Van der Plas' party was in 14 seats in the poll, this week there are 18. For BBB, which now only has 1 seat in the House, a huge advance that the current coalition led by VVD and D66 to should be cause for concern. These two parties will jointly lose 25 seats in the poll. The VVD has -13 seats and has 21 seats. D66, the big rival of BBB, is only the fifth party in the country with 12 seats in the poll. That is half of the current number of seats.
Even after the past week, the troubled CDA remains stable at 7 seats, a loss of 8 seats. JA21, which has three seats in the current parliament, has to give up 2 seats in today's poll and is now virtually at 8 seats. Joost Eerdmans, the captain of JA21, presented a joint alternative nitrogen plan with Van der Plas last week. That is not rewarded for JA21. In fact, according to opinion poller De Hond, the BBB also stole a few seats in the poll from JA21. According to De Hond, the profit of BBB is also largely at the expense of the VVD.
Potential Switchers
According to De Hond, Van de Plas's party has proved capable of mobilizing voters on the right-hand side of the political spectrum, in particular. If the BBB still has the political tide towards the provincial elections in March, according to De Hond, the BBB will be able to become the largest party in the Netherlands. "It takes little imagination to imagine what will happen on that side if there is a real chance that the BBB will become larger than the VVD at PS2023. There are sufficient voters among the potential JA21 and PVV voters who then go to the BBB could switch."
Pieter Omtzigt is one factor that can still throw sand in the BBB's engine. If the independent MP with a political movement participates in the elections, he can steal seats from BBB, according to previous polls. Last week, Omtzigt emphatically indicated that he was concerned about the fate of farmers in the nitrogen discussion, without explicitly specifying how, in his view, nitrogen policy should be shaped.
Eric the Thrush
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