How is milk supply moving in US and New Zealand?

New Zealand is in the trough of milk production this month. The figures from the DCANZ product board for May indicate a production of 911.000 tons. This is a decrease of more than 6% compared to the same period last year. This means that the downward trend, which has been visible almost all year round, continues. Some recovery seemed visible in March, but that has been nipped in the bud.

The contraction is mainly related to a decrease in the number of dairy cows, which has fallen to 4,8 million. In 2014, New Zealand had almost 5,2 million dairy cows. Stricter environmental standards are also at play in New Zealand. Only from August does milk production start to increase seasonally again, after which it peaks in October.

Production in US shows backlog
In the United States, milk production has already lagged behind 2021 throughout the year. If this trend continues, there will be a break in the trend. In May, the US produced 8,93 million tons of milk, which is a decrease of 0,7%. This is according to figures from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Here too, a decrease in the number of dairy cows is to blame for the contraction. In the 24 largest dairy countries, production fell by 0,6% to 8,53 million tons.

Last month the US had 9,41 million dairy cows, which is a decrease of 100.000 compared to 12 months earlier. The production per animal also falls short of expectations, which seems to be a result of the high feed prices. The USDA still expects a slight growth in milk production for the whole of 2022, but the expectations have already been revised downwards.