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Analysis milk

Summer weakness puts pressure on dairy prices

8 July 2022 - Klaas van der Horst

The midsummer weakness seems to be making its way onto the dairy market for good. The quotations are under pressure for both powders and cheeses and butter. With the semi-finished products, it is cream that is also slightly weaker. However, the price decrease is not market-wide.

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Skimmed milk concentrate has been priced slightly more firmly this week, while raw milk prices have remained virtually stable. This may be partly due to a fairly limited supply. On the other hand, demand is also weak.

Although the market looks clearly weaker than in previous weeks, it is still difficult to draw further conclusions from this. Many products are indeed still on the expensive side if parties want to enter the world market with them. In terms of dairy products, Europe is too expensive for the world market, but large stocks have not yet been built up. The internal demand is too great for that and the product is also too expensive.

Budget and availability of dairy
Many buyers wait as long as possible before purchasing new products, because the prices are so high and the purchasing budget is often almost used up. Traders are limited in their actions by low cash flow. The availability of milk has become somewhat wider, but no one seems to be able to say what will really happen to milk prices after the summer. 

The fact is that cheese and powder prices are now under pressure. Among cheeses, cheddar prices remain the most resistant to price pressure. Prices for Gouda and Edam are currently falling relatively the fastest, but in a 'thin' market.

It is striking that prices for feed products are falling the most for powders - both for skimmed milk powders and whey powders.

The large price gap that already existed between whey powder food and feed is only becoming wider due to the latest developments. This reportedly has everything to do with the differences in valorization options. On the one hand for the production of, among other things, sweetened condensation in Asia, and on the other hand for young cattle feed in Europe.

Finally, the butter market has also become noticeably weaker this week, but several major players in this market are wondering whether this is really permanent. The availability of butter remains tight, but the willingness to pay the current high prices would decrease. Reference is made to the declining sales in retail.

Others argue that sales of pastry products continue to rise, which would contradict the complaints about high prices. Perhaps it will only become clear after the summer, when markets normalize, what is really going on.

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