Background Nitrogen Mood
Nitrogen fight from consultation back to the trigger
The farmers' organizations consider the nitrogen consultation with the cabinet, led by Johan Remkes, to have failed today (Friday). According to LTO, the suggestions that Prime Minister Mark Rutte made cum suis far too meager and there does not seem to be any sign of a beginning of restoration of trust between the parties. Mark van den Oever, the disappointed chairman of Farmers Defense Force, announced the 'hardest actions ever' on Friday. This threatens to bring the nitrogen fight back to square one and, after a short interlude behind the conference table, to move back to the trigger. In our new weekly section Nitrogen Mood we give an impression of the nitrogen crisis in our own way.
With the House of Representatives on recess and the waste campaigns on the highways behind us, the direct conversation between the farmers' organizations and the cabinet seemed to have a chance. There was, however, a tussle about the terms of the consultation. Prime Minister Rutte and his team are not yet ready for substantive discussions, however he showed, among other things, to Agractie foreman Bart Kemp. His handyman Remkes suggested otherwise on Friday.
The cabinet is constantly testing where the weak spots are in the farmers' front: do they really agree to a conversation led by 'mediator' Remkes or will there be another formula? And is it possible to dilute the voice of the large agricultural membership organizations by also involving all kinds of non-member clubs, such as Boerennatuur and the Biohuis? An imminent uprising last weekend within LTO 'from the bottom up' has in any case made LTO leader Sjaak van der Tak more lenient to work together with the other member organizations in agriculture. He seemed to have fallen for the charms of Prime Minister Rutte before, by announcing the participation of LTO in the nitrogen consultation.
Kemp more forward
LTO confirmed last Wednesday that it would again join forces with the other farmers' organizations and that Van der Tak will keep its back straight. It also seems agreed that Bart Kemp will act more as a spokesperson. Perhaps because Van der Tak still has too much of the image of a professional director, with a history in horticulture and the CDA. Also, someone who likes closing deals. In the meantime, a substantive discussion with the cabinet has yet to come. On Friday, Van der Tak was allowed to make it clear to Rutte and his team. If all goes well, more substantive conversations could start later this month, according to the farmers' organizations. A gesture from the government seems to be a condition for this.
Test balloons cabinet
The cabinet has already released some test balloons this week - perhaps to gauge the vote - such as the idea to postpone the deadline for nitrogen reduction by five years to 2035. However, nothing has been officially confirmed, and Rutte and Van der Wal denied. it crystal clear after the consultation. Things have to start moving at crucial points for agriculture, such as the Critical Deposition Value (KDW) and the PAS detectors. Rutte indicated earlier this week that he does not intend to change that just yet. His tactic seemed to be to put new groups of policy lawyers on these files, groups that still have to find some space here and there in difficult consultations, that's how Agractie leader Kemp understood it.
Remkes suggested space at the cabinet
Nevertheless, Remkes suggested after Friday's consultation with LTO that there may be room for something besides the KDW and perhaps more can be done in the field of innovation and nature mapping in the Netherlands. He must have gotten that feeling from Rutte, but he threw cold water on this feeling immediately after Remkes made statements. This suggests that something has gone wrong in the direction from the turret. Some sources from The Hague believe that a quarrel has broken out within the cabinet. Anyway, the circus-Remkes achieved the opposite effect of what should happen. The flame threatens to strike again.
However, the cabinet cannot keep its feet up on everything. Some positions are simply untenable. Out a secret report from TNO (at the request of the cabinet) it appears that millimeters with the KDW, as the RIVM does, have very little to do with reality anymore. It is primarily a math exercise. Substantiations are lacking and are even impossible.
KDW less than 1 is noise according to TNO
According to the TNO, all emissions below a KDW of 1 must be regarded as 'noise'. The origin of these types of emissions can be from a farm close to nature, but just as much from industry and traffic far away as from natural sources. Most likely it is a mix of all together, but indistinguishable. Evidence against the cabinet plans is also piling up from numerous other documents requested via the WOO (Open Government Act, successor to the WOB). In a conversation on BNR news radio, emeritus professor Rudy Rabbinge called on the cabinet to stop presenting a distorted image and to return to reality itself.
The coming period will show whether the government is really prepared to move.
Klaas van der Horst
© DCA Market Intelligence. This market information is subject to copyright. It is not permitted to reproduce, distribute, disseminate or make the content available to third parties for compensation, in any form, without the express written permission of DCA Market Intelligence.
