Politics Polls
Omtzigt is pulling away many seats from BoerBurgerBeweging
Maurice de Hond's latest poll shows that when independent MP Pieter Omtzigt announces that he will enter the Chamber with his own party, he takes quite a few seats from the BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) from Caroline van der Plas. BBB and Omtzigt are currently working together on a regular basis, such as recently with joint nitrogen questions to the cabinet. Omtzigt and BBB together have a cartload of seats, which could lead to a political landslide.
The latest poll by De Hond on Sunday 7 August makes this clear. In this measurement, he also added Omtzigt with his own party as an option, although it is not clear whether the former CDA politician will participate in upcoming parliamentary elections with his own party. If Omtzigt were to participate now, it wouldn't do him any harm. The so-called Omtzigt List will immediately come out as the largest party in the Netherlands with 24 seats. This means that the fan base for Omtzigt remains remarkably stable, because an earlier poll in October 2021 he won 25 seats.
Potential BBB voters are leaning towards Omtzigt
BBB continues to do very well in the polls, but last week's nitrogen commotion has not resulted in more seats for the party. In fact: BBB has to give up 1 seat compared to the last poll on July 10, but with 19 seats virtually (if Omtzigt does not participate independently) it is still the second party in the Netherlands. However, a good number of these potential voters also strongly prefer Omtzigt. If he starts his own party, he will lose eight seats from BBB in the poll. Caroline van der Plas will then end up with 11 seats, which is still an excellent result in view of the current number of seats.
In the poll that included Omtzigt, he and BBB together have a seat total of 35 seats, which represents a significant shift in the political landscape. VVD, D66 and CDA in particular are losing a lot of seats. Should the poll ever materialize, the result will have a downside. Due to the enormous fragmentation of the political landscape, it would then seem impossible to form a majority coalition (more than 75 seats).
Effects of the nitrogen crisis
De Hond also asked how the respondents view the nitrogen crisis. The understanding for farmers, which was 52% four weeks ago, has now fallen to 45%. Six weeks ago, 38% thought that the nitrogen target should be achieved by 2030, now it is 35%. The share that now mentions the year 2035 will rise from 14% to 18%. Only 17% think that the talks with Johan Remkes will lead to a solution to the conflict with the farmers. Only among the voters of VVD and D66 more than 30% think it will work.
Eric the Thrush
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