Analysis Milk
Milk supply is coming under increasing pressure in EU
The effect of the drought in Southern and Central Europe on the milk supply is still relatively insignificant in the European supply data. The June data, which many Member States have only just submitted, mainly show a seasonal decline in supply.
Read this article?
Become a subscriber and get instant access
Choose the subscription that suits you
Supplies are declining in all major dairy countries in the EU, although the picture is slightly more erratic in some countries than others.
Yet there are serious concerns. Grass growth and also the growth of other roughage for livestock farming took a serious hit. The problems mainly started to reveal themselves from July onwards, and the Member States have not yet published supply figures. However, it is clear from the weekly overviews of France-Agrimer a steadily decreasing milk supply, while the French supply this year is already at the lowest level in recent years. In week 30, supply decreased by 0,4%.
The dairy association Cniel already warned about this this week empty shelves. That sounds like panic football, but the feeding situation is dire. Winter supplies are also being used here and there in Belgium and Germany.
In Germany, according to the statistical agency AMI, milk supply is also falling sharply, even by 30% in week 0,5. These seem small percentages, but here too it is on top of an already low basic level of supply. And in the meantime, the drought continues. Grass and corn are in poor condition in many places.
The picture is slightly more favorable in a number of smaller EU member states, but for the time being no surpluses of milk and dairy products are expected anywhere. It is not yet possible to say whether this will lead to even higher prices in stores and/or to a drop in demand, but the signs do not appear to be favorable for consumers.