News Nitrogen
Nitrogen hollows out VVD, but remains in poll just ahead of BBB
Many of the voters who say goodbye to the VVD in the next elections for the House of Representatives do not agree with the goals of the nitrogen policy. This group believes that the goal of halving nitrogen emissions by 2030 should not be binding. Although the VVD loses 14 seats in Maurice de Hond's poll, Prime Minister Mark Rutte's party remains just 1 seat above BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB). The party of Caroline van der Plas remains virtually the second party in the Netherlands with 19 seats in the poll.
This is reflected in the sounding which Maurice de Hond published on Tuesday morning, August 28. This shows that for the time being, BBB cannot further convert the current nitrogen malaise into more seats and can virtually push through to become the first party in the Netherlands. In the new poll, BBB comes out at 19 seats, which is a loss of 1 seat compared to the previous poll of July 10, 2022. For Van der Plas' party, which now only sits in parliament, this is still a spectacular profit. The VVD also loses a seat and ends up with 20 seats in the poll.
It is also striking that the CDA neither benefits nor suffers damage from their new position in the nitrogen debate, resulting in an beckoning government crisis. Wopke Hoekstra's party remains at 6 seats, still a significant loss compared to the current 15 seats. D66, like the VVD, continues to do poorly with the voters. According to the poll, Sigrid Kaag's party has halved to 12 seats. The four coalition parties jointly have 44 seats in the poll, a loss of no less than 34 seats compared to the current number in parliament.
Major differences in views on nitrogen
De Hond also surveyed the voters' position on nitrogen policy, in particular whether the government's target of a 50% nitrogen reduction by 2030 should be achieved. A minority of 47% of voters who took part in the poll agree, leaving a majority of the opinion that this nitrogen target should not be sacrosanct. However, the differences according to political preference are large. All parties on the left have received broad support from their voters for upholding this goal. A large majority of voters from all parties more on the right side of the political spectrum find the nitrogen target absolutely not sacred. The VVD stands out in this specific poll, De Hond reports.
A majority of 53% of the liberals believe that the VVD should stick to the nitrogen target of 2030. But these are, emphasizes De Hond, the voters who indicate that they still vote for the VVD. De Hond points to the black lines in the graph (see below). These indicate if the poll is compared to the voting behavior of voters during last year's parliamentary election. If the voters who voted for the VVD at the time are included, it turns out that only 35% of the VVD's supporters for the canonization of 2030 are in nitrogen policy. According to De Hond, only 16% of those who voted VVD last year and would not do so now consider 2030 as binding and the rest do not.
Code Red in politics The Hague
In an explanation of the polls, De Hond himself speaks of a Code red for politics in The Hague, referring to the enormous fragmentation in the political landscape and the inability of the current coalition to act decisively in crises such as nitrogen, asylum policy, energy prices. and inflation. He expects that if the cabinet does not fall in the next 6,5 months - until the elections of the Provincial Council and indirectly the Senate in mid-March 2023 - there is a very good chance that the results of these elections will "be a kind of confirmation." of the pattern we are now seeing in the poll and the government will be nowhere near a majority in the Senate."
Eric the Thrush
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