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Analysis Dairy Business

Milk powder market weakens, cheese market softens

2 September 2022 - Klaas van der Horst

The revival that played out in the milk powder market last week seems to have disappeared again this week. The price for whole milk powder did rise, but the price for skimmed milk powder - the main product in commodity powders - fell again. This also applies to whey powder.

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They are not big moves, but the direction has changed. According to parties in the trade, this move is related to a large purchase order for Algeria. State purchasing agency ONIL was looking for 65.000 tons of milk powder. Normally a large part of this is supplied by European parties. In the run-up to this, prices for skimmed milk powder increased last week.

Fonterra takes market
Unfortunately for European parties, the vast majority of the order passed them by. Fonterra made off with the loot. That was very welcome for the New Zealanders, because they were eager to sell now that China is no longer buying so much. The consequence of this state of affairs is that the European milk powder price is now weaker again, according to the DCA listing. The reason is that there is no large supply for Algeria and other exports are also not going smoothly, because European product is expensive. European milk powder manufacturers also suffer from high energy prices. 

In the wake of the skimmed milk powder, the whey powder price also weakened somewhat.

The cheese market was also somewhat quieter this week. Prices for Gouda and mozzarella fell slightly, but this was due to other factors. Most cheese production is contracted until the end of the year. So no big worries about that anymore. The undertone is stable. However, the spot market continues to move in line with consumer confidence, retail reports and the like.

The surcharges for extra qualities of cheese also vary widely. Those who want cheese with the Frau Antje seal have paid €10 to €15 per 100 kilos extra in recent months, which is €5 more than normal. If you order this cheese for delivery later this year, you will have to pay an extra €50 to €70 per 100 kilos. Vlog cheese costs about €15,00 per 100 kilos extra. 

Difficult market for branded and natural cheese
Natural cheese and certainly branded cheese are having an extra hard time in today's high-priced market. An increasing group of consumers finds this a very expensive product. Producers and traders are also becoming increasingly reluctant to hold large volumes of expensive 'storage cheese'. There is simply too much money going into it, while there is a risk that if prices fall, it will also have to be written down.

As with skimmed milk powder, the price of butter also fell slightly, to €7.035 per tonne. That did not rhyme with the development of cream. This became €70 per tonne more expensive and went to €8.530 per tonne.

Skimmed milk concentrate rose €85 in price to €3.460 per tonne, but that is not reflected in higher milk powder prices. The milk concentrate will most probably be used for the production of fresh dairy or cheese, and also for the purchase of additional raw material to complete current orders.
The raw milk market remains broadly stable. Availability remains tight. In the Netherlands there was a slight price increase for spot milk this week, in Germany and France the prices remained largely stable.

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