News Politics
Poll: winning BBB little bit back, coalition falls through ice
In the last political polls of this week, the BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) drops slightly, but Caroline van der Plas's party still stands on a huge gain. The current government coalition of VVD, D66, CDA and ChristenUnie completely collapses. The voter's confidence in Pieter Omtzigt is high. If he participates in the next elections for the House of Representatives with his own party, Omtzigt can easily become the largest.
This week political polls were published by Maurice de Hond and I&O Research. This is now being looked at closely, because in five months (March 2023) the elections for the Provincial Council will be held. This also results in the distribution of seats in the Senate. The results of these two measurements are generally remarkably consistent. VVD and D66, the largest government parties, are losing a huge number of seats. In both polls, VVD comes out on 21 seats, D66 on 12 seats. This means they lose 13 and 12 seats respectively, or a loss of 25 seats. The CDA is also more than halved, leaving 6 seats at De Hond and 7 seats at I&O compared to the current number of 15 seats. The ChristenUnie remains stable with 5 (the current number of seats in parliament) to 6 seats. Judging by the poll by De Hond, the coalition loses virtually 33 seats.
According to I&O, a large part of this so-called electorate, and in particular the VVD voters, will go to BBB, PVV and JA21. Disappointed D66 voters are more likely to opt for an alternative to the left in the form of the PvdA and GroenLinks. With 14 to 15 seats, BBB remains virtually the third party in the Netherlands after VVD and PVV. This means that Van der Plas's party has lost something compared to two months ago, when BBB was still at 19 seats in De Hond's poll. But with a gain of 13 to 14 seats, BBB is still on a big win. Just like JA21 by the way. Joost Eerdmans' party is in the polls at 10 to 12 seats, compared to 3 seats now in parliament (read more below the polls).
Both De Hond and I&O note an increasing polarization between the parties on the left and right of the political spectrum. The fragmentation is great, with seven parties each scoring 10 seats or more in the polls. The mood is also very volatile, reports I&O. Only 21% of voters are sure of their vote in the next parliamentary elections. This will become even clearer when Pieter Omtzigt decides to participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections with his own party or movement. The current independent Member of Parliament has not yet expressed that ambition. If Omtzigt participates with his own list, according to the poll by De Hond, he can easily come out as the big winner with 28 seats. This makes Omtzigt the largest party in the Netherlands in one fell swoop.
He then picks up these seats in particular at BBB, which has to give up 7 seats compared to the poll without Omtzigt. PVV, JA21 and to a lesser extent SP, CDA and ChristenUnie also provide seats at Omtzigt. Under an election with Omtzigt, the current coalition will retain only 40 of the current 78 seats in parliament.
Eric the Thrush
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