Analysis dairy
More positive undertones noticeable in the dairy market
The dairy market is not very good again this week, but there seems to be a slightly positive undertone - over the Christmas period and the turn of the year. The market for milk powders has stabilized quite a bit in recent weeks, although exports have become somewhat more difficult due to a harder euro against the dollar. In addition, the butter market for the first quarter seems to be looking better than the spot market in recent weeks.
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This seems to indicate that there is something of a bottom in the market again. The price of cheese is still a point of concern. It continues to move downwards.
Anyone who only looks at the spot market of the past week does not immediately get the impression that the butter and cream market is doing better.
The DCA cream quotation for this week is below €5.000 per tonne for the first time in a long time, the butter quotation barely remains above this after persistent price drops. This quotation also includes the prices of parties that still have to find a way in the short term and are therefore sold under pressure. The situation is better for product that is needed in the first quarter of the new year. Prices are rising slightly.
The price for skimmed milk concentrate, the main raw material for skimmed milk powder, has also remained almost stable compared to last week.
Not €25
Perhaps most striking is that the price for raw milk has remained so quiet this week, and in Germany even seems slightly better than last week. This is of course a snapshot and underneath there is still a considerable spread in prices. However, it can now already be said with some confidence that the spot milk price next week will not fall below €25 per 100 kilos, which has regularly occurred in previous years.
These prices may be perceived as bad by farmers, and that is not surprising if the price paid is still more than €35 higher, but this concerns the spot market. Yet there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel.
This is not yet the case for the cheese market. Prices for Gouda and Edam foil cheese have fallen well below €4.000 per tonne.
The quotations for other types of cheese have also fallen, Cheddar most of all. However, here too, these quotations still include an end-of-year effect. The picture can be quite different again in January. Whey powder has also fallen slightly further in price, but relatively slightly.