Cheese market is lackluster with weak undertones

With prices between €3.100 and €3.200 per tonne, Gouda and Edam have been moving steadily around the long-term average for a few weeks. The market has been devalued because inventories have increased. At the same time, sales are of sufficient volume not to fall below the long-term average. Mozzarella is also participating in the flat trend, while cheddar is slowly moving downward due to cheap Irish supply. 

Despite the stability, the market is more likely to go down than up in the coming weeks. This is partly due to the seasonal increase in milk supply in Europe, which means that a lot of milk flows into the cheese bin. This currently provides the best valorisation of milk. Supply is oppressively large, especially in Northwestern Europe, as evidenced by low prices for spot milk, which hover around €30 per 100 kilograms.

Weak sales
Cheese sales are described by insiders as weak. Due to the relatively high prices on the shelves, supermarkets still charge less than contracted. This makes larger volumes available on the spot market, although cheese stocks are certainly not sky-high. Sales to the food service channels are described as 'ordinary'.

Despite the reduced prices, buyers are in no hurry to secure volumes for the third and fourth quarters. This also indicates that prices are more likely to come under pressure than to move upward again.