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Analysis dairy business

Liquid dairy market unexpectedly positive

19 May 2023 - Wouter Baan

Due to a series of broken weeks, many processing days are currently lost. In addition, the milk supply is also at the seasonal peak, which has already turned out well this year. From this perspective, it is all the more striking that liquid dairy prices have also taken a big step up this week.

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The dairy market has been characterized by stability in recent months, but the regular products are slowly gaining considerable ground. Butter, milk powder and cheeses are increasing in value. Market sentiment has clearly improved in recent weeks. This is especially noticeable on the liquid market.

Room considerably more expensive
For example, the quotations for cream and skimmed milk concentrate have again risen sharply this week. Room rises by almost €400 to the highest level since the end of December. This means that cream is taking more distance from the price of butter, which is also rising, but much less rapidly. The price increase for cream is due to limited availability. This is striking, given the cancellation of a processing day on Ascension Day. Add to that the seasonal peak and the surprise in the market is complete. It is true that cream was heavily undervalued compared to butter for a long time, but that imbalance seems to be recovering faster than expected. However, it remains to be seen whether the upward trend will continue in the coming weeks.

Protein market
The protein market runs parallel to the positive fat market. Skimmed milk concentrate has risen by almost €250 per tonne this week, catching up with skimmed milk powder, which is also making a significant increase.

Cheese market continues to rise
Cheese prices also continue to rise, although the rate of increase is slow compared to the volatile liquid market. Thanks to limited stocks and improved sales opportunities in view of the tourist season, the market can look up. For the third quarter, Gouda cheese is even asking for more than €3.600 per tonne, which indicates that producers have confidence. Now it remains to be seen whether retail will want to go along with this, as it is still claiming a drop in demand due to high inflation.

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