Analysis dairy business
Milk powder export is going much better than expected
The milk powder market has not been very dynamic for some time. Dairy traders and producers say that sales are disappointing, especially on the world market. Nevertheless, the export figures are much less bad than the market sentiment suggests. European export figures have not been as good as they are now for years.
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Although skimmed milk powder prices have recently regained some ground, the market remains stuck below €2.500 per tonne. This means that prices are below the long-term average. Whey powder prices move mainly sideways. The milk powder market looks timid. With the sharp increase in milk supplies in Northwest Europe, stocks have also reportedly increased. Sales are disappointing, partly due to high inflation in the euro zone.
Determining global market
Sales opportunities on the global market often determine market sentiment. Insiders say that sales outside Europe are also disappointing. Reference is made to the cooling Chinese economy, in combination with the growing milk production there. Although weak global market demand can indeed be perceived as such, this is not consistent with the export figures. The latest figures from Eurostat show that sales to third countries increased by 2023% in the first quarter of 32 compared to the same period last year, to around 210.000 tonnes. In March, 81.438 tons were exported, the highest monthly volume since July 2021.
Algerian import record
Algeria in particular buys a lot of skimmed milk powder. In March 17.686 tons were imported, never before has the import volume of European production been so large. With more than 12.000 tons, China imported the largest volume in almost two years in March. The export volumes of whey powder are also considerably ahead of last year.
Trend break in US
There may be a change from April onwards. The European sales figures for that month are not yet known, but those of the USA already. Both dairy superpowers are in each other's way, especially in the Asian sales market. US dairy export figures reversed the trend in April and were the worst in four years. Milk powder was the driving force behind the decline. Whether European sales in April will also show a decline remains to be seen.