Holiday period puts the brakes on cheese prices

Between early April and mid-June, cheese prices (Gouda, Edammer) rose by around 15% to around €3.600 per tonne. Despite this not negligible price increase, the market did not feel very convincing during this period. The increase was more like a correction to the significant write-downs in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, cheese was the driving force on the dairy market during the period that followed, as butter and milk powder were certainly unable to make a difference.

Trend break
In the past week (week 25), foil cheese prices took a step back for the first time in a few months. This can be seen as a trend break, but nothing more than that. A significant drop in foil cheese prices is not likely. After all, producers claim to have low stocks, especially some large players in Germany strongly report this. In addition, producers feel pressure not to allow the value of milk to decline further, because with the current payment prices, dairy farmers can barely make a margin. Cheddar prices are, however, under some pressure. This results in depressing Irish supply on the European mainland. 

Stable summer months
Higher foil cheese prices are also not obvious. After all, there is little demand on the spot market, especially for the coming summer months. Supermarkets are often reduced for the period known as low demand, when many consumers often visit the more southern parts of Europe. This entails a calculated drop in demand. With clear stocks and moderate demand, cheese prices appear to be stable through the summer months. How the market will subsequently develop will be highly dependent on the milk supply in Europe. The (German) producers expect an improving market again from August.