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Commission expects lower milk production in the EU

14 July 2023 - Klaas van der Horst

European milk production increased by 0,8% in the first four months of this year. In the course of this year, this trend will reverse and there will gradually be less milk. This is due to a stagnating sales market and therefore lower dairy prices. As a result, milk production over the whole of this year will be about 0,2% lower than last year.

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This is stated in the short-term forecast, published by the European Commission. In the meantime, milk and dairy prices are falling, but according to the Commission, this is good for a recovery in exports. Europe has been quite competitive for butter and skimmed milk powder lately. This is expected to improve further. The milk supply will also decrease due to extra cow slaughter. The Commission foresees 2% fewer dairy cattle.


As a result, the export of skimmed milk powder in particular is expected to increase by 10%. Beef production will decrease by about 2%, despite additional slaughter of dairy cattle and despite persistently high meat prices. The fact that meat consumption is also decreasing by 1% has relatively little influence on the market

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