Higher cheese market faces obstacles

The price for Gouda foil cheese is now above the level of €3.500 per tonne again. Historically speaking, not a bad level at all, if you ignore the price peak in 2022. The cheese market is somewhat divided across the board, because cheddar and mozzarella cannot yet make a fist. The cheddar price is under pressure due to the oppressive ample supply from Ireland. The stocks for Gouda and Edammer are much clearer.

Production
This is striking, because foil cheese has provided the best valorisation of milk in recent months. This provided an incentive to produce more cheese. This also happened, because in July production rose above the 2022 level for the first time since April. Large production volumes were not achieved, because production in the Netherlands remained below 80.000 tons. In previous years, production often exceeded that.

Sales can cope with the extra cheese production quite easily. Both retail demand and food service are excellent, producers indicate. German producers even speak of good sales. The lower prices on the supermarket shelf have a positive effect on this. However, producers continue to report a shift in demand, with private labels gaining popularity.

Decrease in milk supply
Cheese production will decrease in the coming weeks, in line with the seasonal decline in milk supplies. This provides a basis for foil cheese prices to rise further. However, large price increases are not expected, especially because the dairy market as a whole still feels weak and sentiment is hard to find. In addition, foil cheese will price itself out of the market with further price increases, compared to other cheeses.