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Dutch milk supply deeper in the red

10 November 2023 - Wouter Baan

The milk supply figures for October show a decrease compared to the same month last year. Viewed in volume, the difference is considerably greater than a month earlier. And when we zoom in on the levels, a big difference becomes apparent. The effect of bluetongue is making itself felt. 

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At 1.112.961 tons, Dutch milk production last month was 2,35% lower than last year. This accelerates the decline, because in September the difference was still 1%. The fat content in the milk in particular has suffered and has fallen from 4,49% last year to 4,31%. Therefore, fat production in October was 47.921% lower than last year at 6,31 tons. This is the lowest level since September 2021.

The declining supply is most likely amplified by the outbreaks of bluetongue, which has also been spreading quite rapidly in dairy farming since this autumn. It is estimated that milk production on affected dairy farms is 10% to 15% lower.

Scarcity on the spot market
The lower supply figures can easily be explained by the current scarcity on the liquid spot market. The prices for cream and skimmed milk concentrate have risen sharply in recent weeks and are therefore no longer charged compared to the solid end components such as butter and milk powder. Spot milk is also scarce and in mid-November, at €48, it is well above the payment prices.  

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