A tight dairy market does not come out of the blue

The most current monthly figures come from your own country. Dutch milk production was down in October 2,35% below last year's level. This accelerates the decline, because in September the difference was still 1%. The fat content in the milk in particular has suffered and has fallen from 4,49% last year to 4,31%. Therefore, fat production in October was 47.921% lower than last year at 6,31 tons. If we look at our southern neighbors, a different picture emerges. The Belgian milk supply showed an increase of more than 3,5% in September. This makes Belgium the odd one out in Europe. However, the substantial increase has decreased in recent months.

Trend break in Germany
In Germany, the supply figures for September have not yet been published by Eurostat, but we do not have to wait for that to conclude that milk production is under pressure. The weekly figures from the ZMP product board show that milk supply has been below last year's level since week 41. In weeks 42 and 43 the negative difference further builds up to approximately 1%. This while the German milk supply in July was still more than 2% above last year's level. 

5% less milk in France
In France, the milk supply is proportionately under the most pressure. The supply figures have been below the 2022 level all year, but the difference has been increasing in recent months. In September, supply was 4,7% below that of the same month last year. Recent weekly figures from France Agrimer show that the negative difference is already 5%. This shows that the decline in September was not an incident due to a warm late summer. The decline in French milk supply has been expected for some time, but is happening faster than expected. The milk supply is also under pressure in Italy. Until June, the 2022 line could be reasonably followed, but in September production was 2% lower.

Irish milk less
The Irish have been producing lower volumes all year than last year. The difference increases as the months pass. In September, supply was 1,93% below last year's level. The decline is probably a combination of a wet summer and the significantly lower milk price. In Ireland the decline was greater than elsewhere in Europe, with milk prices even falling below €35 per 100 kilos. This led to several protests from producer organizations, but so far with little success. In addition, in Ireland - just like in the Netherlands - the derogation is being phased out. This means that Irish dairy farmers will be allowed to spread less manure from 2024. This may also suppress milk production in the background. In the United Kingdom, supply is also declining rapidly this autumn. In September, supply was less than 2% below last year. The provisional weekly figures for November show a negative difference of more than 3%. 

Mixed picture in Eastern Europe
In Poland, the milk supply still records green figures. Nevertheless, supply is declining. The seasonal peak in May was 3,5% above the 2022 level. By September the lead had been reduced to less than 1,5%. In other Eastern European countries, the supply presents a mixed picture. While Romania produces significantly more milk, the supply is under pressure in countries such as Hungary, Estonia and Lithuania. More milk does come from Latvia. However, compared to Poland, the influence of other Eastern European member states on market sentiment is limited.