With the New Year just around the corner, February is not far away. Nevertheless, that thought does not calm the overcrowded manure market and it is a tough search for sufficient sales opportunities for various livestock farmers. The trade in replacement processing agreements (VVOs) has been busy in recent days, resulting in quite a few price fluctuations.
The trade in VVOs turned out to be difficult last week (week 51). In the week before Christmas, the value per VVO fell steadily to approximately €1,60 per kilo of phosphate, but as Christmas approached the value continued to rise and climbed to approximately €2,30 per kilo of phosphate. According to intermediaries and traders, many waited until the last minute and demand increased considerably at some point.
The majority of the trade in VVOs has now been completed and this is also reflected in the value. The value has fallen again in recent days and, according to DCA quotes, amounts to €28 per kilo of phosphate on Thursday afternoon, December 2,06. Trading is possible until December 31, but since New Year's Day falls on a Sunday, many expect to have finished trading this Friday.
Manure intermediaries express concerns
The hectic pace of the overcrowded fertilizer market has not diminished in recent weeks. Slowly but surely, the spreading season is coming into view, but the sector is only doing so to a limited extent. Relatively many livestock farmers, the majority of which are cattle farmers, still have to find storage for their full manure pits and that remains difficult and also very expensive. Due to various reasons, such as the last wet spring, which resulted in less spreading, the reduction of derogation and so on, they have to remove more manure than before and there is simply not enough room for that. Manure intermediaries and contractors give priority to regular customers with fixed volumes and did not always empty their stores last season. But even regular customers do not always get rid of the extra manure that they have to dispose of. It is also above average busy with transport for this time of year.
Various fertilizer intermediaries and contractors express their concerns about how to proceed in the coming seasons. When the spreading season starts again, the pressure will drop, but that will not solve the problem. Inventories are already so high that not everything can be placed, according to the expectation of several insiders. With the new manure policy there will be even less space for placement and the pressure will be even higher than this season. In the week before Christmas, a motion was submitted by various parties, including NSC, VVD and BBB, requesting Minister Piet Adema to come up with an action plan before March 1, 2024 to deal with a possible manure crisis. However, the minister has indicated several times that there is not a 'real' manure problem because nationally there must be enough space for the manure produced. According to him, this is not being used optimally.
When spreading from February onwards, manure sales prices will probably fall, but manure intermediaries expect this to be limited compared to other years due to major concerns about manure sales. Making estimates about this is difficult due to the many factors.
Manure sales prices continue to rise
In recent weeks, sales costs for liquid manure have been rising steadily and this week is no different according to DCA's fertilizer quotations. The peak price has therefore still not been reached. Manure disposal costs differ per region and also vary due to transport costs. Payments for pig slurry exceed €30 per tonne in various regions, such as in the Deurne region with an average of €32 per tonne. Cattle slurry is slightly lower on average, but also around €28 per tonne.