Quiet start on the cheese market after corrections in December

In the fourth quarter of 2023, cheese prices rose by more than 15% to above €4.200 per tonne. Regardless of the tense situation in 2022, these are historically high cheese prices. During that period, the market received support from the shrinking milk supply in Europe. Viewed both seasonally and year-on-year. Demand is often good in the last quarter, partly because of the holidays. As 2023 drew to a close, the cheese market also weakened.

Imbalance restored again
The quotations for Gouda and Edammer had fallen to just over €51 per tonne in weeks 52 and 4.000 (combined). This means that foil cheese has also fallen below the level of cheddar. In the fourth quarter, foil cheese was more expensive than cheddar for weeks, which is rare. The reason for this was that cheddar prices were depressed by a wide Irish supply. Meanwhile, Ireland is 'out of season' and production volumes there are much lower. As a result, the imbalance in the cheese market has been partly restored.

Quiet start to 2024
Market expectations for 2024 are still cloudy. The start of January is as expected quiet. Trading will really start next week, when the holidays are over. But even then the fireworks will probably not happen. Sales in the first quarter are generally relatively weak, although inventories are described as quite tight. In addition, the milk supply will increase again in the coming months towards the seasonal peak in May.

The first signals are that Gouda and Edammer are briefly trading below the €4.000 per tonne mark at the beginning of this year. Insiders predict a stable market for cheddar and mozzarella.