Dutch cheese production is inexplicably falling sharply

In November, 68.824 tons of cheese were produced in the Netherlands. This is the lowest monthly volume since February 2018, which was also a short month. The decline is therefore strikingly large, because in October production was barely 10.000 tons higher. RVO may adjust the production figures retroactively, as sometimes happens more often. But this often concerns a limited adjustment. RVO could not be reached for comment on Wednesday afternoon.

Minus 10 percent
The figures therefore temporarily indicate that Dutch cheese production has fallen considerably. Compared to the same month a year earlier, a decrease of about 10% is visible. This is partly due to lower milk production, which in November was more than 3% below the 2022 level. In addition, more butter and skimmed milk powder were produced in November, because this probably resulted in better valorisation.

The cheese produced in November is currently ready for delivery. Current inventories are described by insiders as mainly tight. However, there is no question of excessive scarcity, which you might expect based on the low production figures. The image conveyed by the production figures is therefore not consistent with the current market image.

Cheddar beyond Gouda
Cheese prices are moving fairly stable at the beginning of 2024. The DCA quotations of Gouda and Edammer are briefly above the limit of €4.000 per tonne. Cheddar is only slightly more expensive and seems somewhat undervalued compared to foil cheese. Conversely, it may also be that foil cheese is overvalued compared to cheddar, but only time will tell. The underlying price trend on the foil market cheese is slowly decreasing, with retail sales being described as weak.