The manure market is on the verge of coming to a standstill due to LNV's new, tightened policy. This puts the entire livestock industry at a standstill and it seems as if LNV is trying to 'reorganize' the sector, according to Johan Mostert, chairman of the manure section of Cumela. He also criticizes interest groups for barely making themselves heard about this, while according to him it is really one minute to twelve.
The overcrowded fertilizer market is having a hard time for various reasons. The wet and late spring of 2023 led to a short and difficult spreading season, causing sales volumes to lag behind. However, Mostert knows that considerable catch-up was made in sales in May and the summer. It is new regulations that are killing the sector. "The real reason that things are now coming to a standstill is mainly the phasing out of the derogation, the decrease in placement space due to the buffer strips. On top of that, the derogation will continue to decrease until 2026. Finally, the new 'nutrient-contaminated areas' ' in regions where standards are being tightened. These regulations are creating a huge surplus. This no longer has anything to do with the weather conditions."
The introduction of the buffer strips alone will result in a decrease of 16 million kilos of nitrogen in placement space, according to an impact analysis made by the Dutch Center for Manure Valuation (NCM). The manure production ceiling for nitrogen was recently lowered to 2025 million kilos of nitrogen for 440,4. While national manure production in 2023 is estimated at 472 million kilos. A significant decrease must be achieved to comply with this.
One minute to twelve
Contractors and manure transporters have their phones ringing off the hook because of the supply of manure. Although livestock farmers try to bide their time until spring, all storages are full to the brim. "It's really one minute to twelve. It doesn't take long until certain stables can no longer accommodate cattle because they can no longer store the manure. Prices are always a matter of supply and demand, but at a certain point the storage space is simply The high prices are difficult to bear and it is inevitable that companies will soon encounter financial problems."
The upcoming spreading season will ease the manure market somewhat, but this will remain limited due to the further decrease in placement space, Mostert expects. This year, the supply will increase again due to the phasing out of the derogation and the placement space will shrink further. "It's a very simple calculation and then you know that things are going to get stuck. The stocks are so high and the cellars will soon be full to the brim. That can no longer be stored in a season in a few weeks of delivery time."
The reality today is that the costs to dispose of pig slurry are between €30 to €35 per cubic meter, depending on region and transport. Cattle slurry costs around €30 per cubic meter. In some cases these prices are lower. The limit of what can be paid has partly been reached, Mostert sees. "Pig farmers have generally had a reasonable year financially, but that does not say everything. I expect the biggest problem among cattle farmers. It is precisely this group that suddenly has to remove much more due to the phasing out of the derogation and at a higher price. That goes double. The ministry has has created this problem and must also come up with a solution. The sector itself absolutely cannot solve this. More processing of manure can be a solution, but that is not possible in the short term. In addition, manure processing is also stuck, because the end product is sent to the same arable farmer must, for which there is insufficient space."
On behalf of Cumela, the alarm has already been raised several times in the past season. It was asked whether a number of other measures could be relaxed. The organization also came up with its own ideas to help find a solution. "They did not respond to this, with the reason that these measures would only help minimally. While in this case it really applies: every little bit helps. LNV insists that there is enough placement space, but practice clearly proves otherwise. The ministry unfortunately always lags behind the facts and is then too late."
'Livestock farming sector is being reorganized'
The livestock population has been shrinking for decades and the space available for manure placement is decreasing. The phosphate usage space has even been halved. According to Mostert, there is a fumigation policy with regard to livestock farming. The current manure surplus is created purely by our own regulations, something that has repeated itself more often in recent decades.
The number of cattle has decreased by more than a quarter since 1980, according to CBS figures. The number fell from 5,2 million in 1980 to 3,7 million in 2006, after which it increased again to 4,3 million in 2016. This was followed by a further decline to 3,8 million in 2022. The number of fattening pigs is compared to 1980. increased slightly. Mostert: "The cattle herd has shrunk on average since 1980, as has the storage space. You have now reached a point where more manure has to be removed, while additional fertilizer has to be purchased to meet the crop needs. That is very crooked and has no effect anymore. to do with policy."
"The LNV will soon conclude that there really is a manure surplus. The only way to do something about this is to further reduce the livestock population. That has been created purely and solely by our own laws and regulations. I suspect - and I really think so - that LNV is trying to reorganize livestock farming in this way. As a sector, there is no way you can work against this."
Doubts
The stricter standards that the agricultural sector has to deal with are the result of European policy. Brussels sets the framework and it is up to the member states to further flesh this out. However, the frameworks have been tightly drawn and according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality, tough negotiations are also taking place in Brussels for some space. However, Mostert hears other sounds. "You hear from Brussels itself that they have seen very few Dutch civil servants. In addition, LNV has implemented a lot of measures in succession in a short period, with a quick action date. The question must also be asked in Europe whether all this is feasible is."
Mostert has his doubts about whether the measured figures are really all based on correct facts. As an example, he mentions the measured nitrate and phosphorus values in nutrient-contaminated areas, about which LNV suddenly made an announcement at the beginning of December 2023. These were figures based on measurements taken ten years ago.
Mostert believes it is crucial to determine the exact extent of leaching, rather than imposing general measures on all areas. "In this way, other possible factors of leaching can also be taken into account instead of largely blaming agriculture."
The method of measuring and what exactly you measure is extremely important, as the Agrifacts Foundation also stated shortly after the announcement of new areas contaminated with nutrients. The foundation drew a comparison with the groundwater map in the European Commission's agricultural reporting. It was out of there the conclusion that LNV paints a much more dramatic picture than the European Commission does. In addition, LNV has used a different definition of 'groundwater' in its measurements that is not in line with European guidelines.
Interest groups must be on their toes
Mostert is also surprised by the farmers' organizations, which have so far kept a relatively low profile in this overloaded manure market. "If you look at the interest groups, you hear very little about them. I don't have the impression that they feel the need, while the need is really enormous in the entire livestock farming industry. People have to stand on their hind legs, the statement take, this far and no further! That is missing now. The policy is tightening after tightening."
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