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Analysis dairy business

German high tide causes liquid dairy prices to drop

June 7, 2024 - Klaas van der Horst

Most dairy prices will also increase this week, except for liquid dairy. Raw milk on the spot market has fallen by more than 10%, while skimmed milk concentrate has fallen by 5,5%. Cream also gets a hit, but that is not yet noticeable in the odds. However, it is not the market itself that is causing this decline. The floods in southern Germany are blamed for this.

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Because rivers burst their banks, factories became flooded - especially Zott - and processing had to be halted. This left a large pool of raw milk and concentrate on the market, which had to be moved elsewhere. For concentrate, the pressure was increased slightly further because there suddenly appeared to be an increased supply in France.

For traders who wanted to process extra powder cheaply, the high water problems were a godsend. Suddenly there was extra cheap raw material available for a (then) increasing powder market

The total market may involve relatively small volumes, but the surpluses make the market. The situation is expected to normalize once the problems caused by the high water are over.

As a whole, dairy products are stable, which means that prices are rising. Also on the powder market, which was under pressure for a long time. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the milk powder market. This week there was an initial upward influence from the latest GDT auction, which recorded a plus of 1,7%. However, that was short-lived. The profits made were quickly lost due to new uncertainty. The futures market quotation in particular took a hit. It is not clear whether further conclusions can be drawn from this.

Things are a little quieter in the meadow. The prices for feed whey (for animal feed) are the most stable, those for food whey are slowly increasing slightly, the market for whey concentrate (liquid) is increasing the price again in fits and starts.

The prices for butter and cream also rose again this week, but for butter there would have been a bigger increase if Aldi had not signed a disappointing contract (for producers and traders) for the delivery of butter at a price of €6.300 per tonne. .

The quotations for butter and cream remain at a high level, in recent weeks even above the level of New Zealand, for example. For weeks the situation was reversed, which is not very often the case. It shows the tight availability of product and limited inventories.

The cheese market also took another step up this week, but not by large amounts per kilo.

The mozzarella price will increase the most. This appears to be mainly caused by an increasing demand from the food service. In terms of returns, the mozzarella price is now more in line with that of Gouda and Edam foil cheese. In recent weeks, buyers have gotten more for their money, but at the expense of the processor.

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