The first half of 2024 is almost over. A good moment to make an interim assessment of the development of milk prices at the various processors in our country. Halfway through the journey, the trend is upward and the level of increase is also faster than many in the market expected. FrieslandCampina sets the pace, although the question is whether the dairy cooperative is not taking on too much again. Arla and Cono have trouble following.
The year started with a hangover. At least for the members of FrieslandCampina. The dairy cooperative from Amersfoort reduced the guaranteed price in January by no less than €1,56 to €44,75 per 100 kilos of milk. However, this downward mutation did deserve some nuance. FrieslandCampina had increased too sharply in December last year in relation to the reference companies and was therefore forced to make a significant correction. In the months that followed, recovery followed and continues to this day. With the increase for July, the guaranteed price has risen to €48 per 100 kilos.
Vreugdenhil, A-ware and DOC Kaas
FrieslandCampina's drive for increases has sometimes raised eyebrows among the competition in recent months. In light of the raw material value, the dairy cooperative would be quite progressive in increasing the milk price, as was sometimes informally 'criticised'. However, it was a choice or share for other processors. To be an attractive buyer in the current shrinking market, the milk price cannot lag too far behind. Vreugdenhil perhaps understands this best. In June, the powder producer's basic milk price exceeded that of FrieslandCampina. DOC Cheese has also increased considerably in the first half of 2024 and has now entered the top 3. However, viewed over a longer period, A-ware is the best payer after FrieslandCampina.
If we look further, Lactalis Leerdammer is and will remain the middle-of-the-road player that they often were in previous years. In the lower regions, Arla stands out, which has dropped considerably. A year ago, Arla introduced the Dutch Milk price calculator still on, but they are now at the bottom. It should be mentioned that the Scandinavian dairy cooperative applies generous standard additional payments that in practice compensate for the negative difference.
Cono Kaasmakers lags behind
Cono Kaasmakers was unable to catch up with the rest in the first half of 2024. For years, the proud dairy cooperative from the Beemster led the rankings, but since the summer of 2022, the situation has changed. Even now that the high food inflation has subsided, it appears that the dairy cooperative is having a hard time. Apparently Cono needs longer to recover the decreased sales (or shrunken margins). Jerry Griep has been CEO for a year since July upon his taking office he expressed his ambition to return to the top of the Milk Price Comparator. To date, this has not been successful, although he has been given more time to realize this. However, the members of the cooperative are quite impatient.
The question that remains is whether FrieslandCampina has not increased the milk price too enthusiastically in recent months. After all, in 2023 the high guaranteed price was already a problem and the numbers had to be in the red. At the end of July, the dairy cooperative will present its half-year figures, which for the first time can be attributed entirely to CEO Jan Derck van Karnebeek. Tapping into equity, as was done in 2023, to prop up the milk price, is of course not a sustainable construction, as they probably understand in Amersfoort. Credit rating agency Fitch also wants to see better figures quickly.
Interesting showdown
The test of strength between processors is interesting to follow for dairy farmers in our country. As mentioned, many factories are hinting at additional growth and are concerned about the supply of raw materials in the form of milk. The question is therefore whether milk prices would have risen as fast as they have in the past six months without the expected decline in animal numbers. The few euros of extra milk money that many processors received adds up to €30.000 in extra turnover for an average dairy farm on an annual basis, which can make a difference down the line. While the dairy market was not that positive at all. It is clear that the competition between milk processors is in full swing. That promises something for the second half of this year.