The last time DCA spot milk prices were above the psychological limit of €50 was in the autumn of 2022. In that memorable year, the dairy market rose to great heights, only to fall back considerably in 2023. Although the market as a whole is certainly not very positive at the moment, spot milk prices are moving upward. Moreover, the expectation is that this trend will continue.
The quotation of DCA for the Dutch market increases this week by €1 to €48 and therefore remains below the aforementioned limit. However, €50 for spot milk seems to be within reach. It may be the holiday period, but this is not an obstacle to higher prices. Although the milk supply often exceeds expectations due to the cool weather conditions, factories are currently in balance.
Few surpluses
There are hardly any surpluses of free milk, partly because the supply decreases seasonally. Buyers therefore have to dig into their pockets if they want to extract volumes. It is also striking that spot milk prices are rising, while there were also factory disruptions in some places this week. This can be seen as a strong signal. Spot milk prices are also rising in Germany this week, just like in France.
You can also set the clock for spot milk prices to increase further in the coming months, as this is also common seasonally. It is expected that 'free milk' will continue to diverge from the payment prices of processors, which often show a leveling off movement.
Cream and milk concentrate also more expensive
Cream and skimmed milk concentrate prices are also rising due to limited availability. There is no support from the permanent market in the form of butter and milk powder. Yet there is demand, because factories and trading houses dare to build up stocks for later this year. Butter supplies are still tight.
There is also confidence in the milk powder market, although not yet very convincing. For example, for forward deliveries, a premium of a few hundred euros per ton must be paid on top of current daily prices. This can encourage producers to build up stocks.