The end of the spreading season is approaching and manure prices have increased rather than decreased this summer. This is also evident from the manure quotations of DCA. Prices have also remained fairly stable in recent weeks, although a lot of liquid manure has been spread during this period. The big question now is how the manure market will develop in the coming months now that the price level is already sky-high and this is putting a heavy burden on the livestock farmer's profit model. Taking into account additional transport and storage costs, the price should theoretically increase. However, according to manure intermediaries, there are also a number of reasons that could pull the price down next spring. This uncertainty is causing manure intermediaries to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
Even in the last week of the spreading season, something is still happening, according to contractors and manure intermediaries. The precipitation this week has put a stop to the last work, but action is expected in the country until the last day. They also indicate that they have been quite busy this summer with the sale of manure. "The driving conditions were good and arable farmers wanted to make maximum use of their manure space. This is reflected in our sales, which are higher than last season," says a manure transporter.
Sales went well, but don't take the pressure off
The general picture is that the sale of cattle manure has gone well this year, in contrast to that of pig manure. That sale has actually been difficult all season and that has to do purely with the difference in contents. Cattle manure yields a lot more per hectare than pig manure. With these sales prices and that calculation is quickly made. The difference in sales was also reflected in the course of the weekly manure quotations of DCA in recent months. The price difference between pig manure and cattle manure increased further, where cattle manure remained mainly stable and pig manure increased slightly in price.
In some regions, it was still quite difficult to find volumes in recent weeks, or cattle manure was brought in from further away with additional transport costs. That's how much demand there was for the manure. In addition, more cattle manure can be sold per hectare due to the difference in contents. But the fact that the cattle manure was drained away well does not mean that all pressure has been taken off the manure market, on the contrary. In other regions, such as the Achterhoek or where there is less arable land nearby, the supply remains depressing and the manure cellars have been emptied less. Another factor is that livestock farmers do not always have the money available to remove all the manure, which is why only a portion has been removed.
Price development during storage season difficult to predict
With the end of the spreading season approaching, the manure market is entering the next phase. The big question now is how the manure market will develop in the coming months, now that the price level is already sky-high and is putting a heavy burden on the livestock farmer's profit model. According to manure intermediaries and contractors, theoretically a lot of euros have to be added to the current price to cover the costs of storage and extra transport. However, the past few months have already shown that the current price level is almost unbearable for many. "You can charge a higher price for the winter, but then it has to be affordable. The question is whether that is even possible," says a manure intermediary, who is also often told that the removal or payment has to be in instalments because otherwise it cannot be paid.
Given the good sales of the last few weeks and the sky-high price level, the manure prices should theoretically have dropped somewhat. However, that did not happen. Many agreements had already been made. In addition, the pressure remains high nationwide, the manure cellars are not empty everywhere and the placement space will be smaller again next season due to, among other things, the phasing out of derogation. In addition, the uncertainty regarding legislation and regulations continues to linger. These prospects for the next season do not have a positive effect on this.
Other signals
However, there are also other signals from the sector that are less negative regarding manure prices. An enormous amount has been sold in recent weeks, according to the opinion of various manure transporters when they look at the sales figures. Several indicate that they have sold more manure this autumn than in the autumn of 2023. The manure storages at transporters are also emptier than last season, that is the average picture. With high manure prices and favourable spreading conditions, a lot can happen in the field, despite the fact that part of the nitrogen space has been filled with artificial fertilizer this spring. Opinions differ somewhat and there are no figures, but some indicate that the volume of manure is currently lower than a year ago. In addition, the type of spring also remains very important and according to various manure transporters that was double bad luck with the wet spring in the past two seasons. They explain that with a good and dry spring, the manure market can suddenly look very different if the spring is 'normal' again. There is also a possibility that legislation and regulations will change in a positive way and provide some extra air on the manure market.
Conclusion
With all these reasons, it is not surprising that manure intermediaries and contractors indicate that they have no idea how the manure market will develop in the coming months. Due to the uncertainty, they have a wait-and-see attitude and eventually they have to be able to pay. Some manure transporters have already indicated that they will increase a little in a few weeks, others are waiting and say that it is of no use anyway because it does not create any extra space. "The silos have to be paid for, so we are going to increase a little. The discussions with arable farmers who have storage are starting to get going, although most of it will take a while. I would not be surprised if the prices that apply today for delivery on the headland are not far off the price for storage in the winter months. The prices are sky-high," according to a manure transporter.
Wiersma manure policy
There is also still uncertainty surrounding the manure policy of Minister of Agriculture Femke Wiersma. Tomorrow (13 September) the entire package will be officially released, today some information about the approach to the manure crisis was already leaked. De Telegraaf came up with a number of details that show that part of the plans of the Adema package, Wiersma's predecessor, have been adopted. For example, the purchase scheme will remain, although broader and renewed. In addition, the phosphate and animal rights will also be skimmed off. These percentages are probably lower than the previous 30% that was mentioned. Not only in dairy farming, but also in poultry and pig farming. There is also room for innovation and technical solutions, De Telegraaf reports. What the land-based nature will look like, remains unclear for now. More explanation about this may be provided tomorrow.
Manure prices stable
The weekly manure quotations of DCA remain mainly stable this week. Cattle manure decreases slightly on average, but that is very marginal. The average price for cattle manure is €32 per tonne and is slightly higher or lower depending on the region and/or distance. Pig manure averages around €36 per tonne, with collection contributions also varying greatly. Prices are highest in the southeast and prices for pig manure are approaching €40 per tonne.