The manure letter presented by Minister of Agriculture Femke Wiersma on Friday will not provide much direct relief for the manure market. Narrower derogation-free zones will yield around 2% more manure placement space. Doubling the correction for gaseous losses could tick over, as it is good for around 25 million kilos of nitrogen. But the minister still has to make a decision on this. Nevertheless, the minister is setting out good guidelines.
Wiersma may not need to take many additional measures than she already proposes, given the number of people who have already stopped. This is according to Lubbert van Dellen, market director and senior business advisor at Flynth.
Van Dellen clearly sees the correction for gaseous losses as the most important technical factor to create more space on the manure market. "The minister is talking about 4% more space, but I have the idea that there is even more difference here, because there is a bandwidth between 14 and 24%. The minister proposes to translate that reduction into new excretion tables for dairy cattle. That makes a lot of sense, because the tables before us are still based on figures from 2017/2018, when there was a lot of good feed with high protein in the grass."
Excretion rate close to ration
"It is simply important to look at the figures again. The expectation in 2021 was that adjusting those tables would result in higher nitrogen production and lower phosphate numbers. It makes sense to now be close to the actual rations and, for example, simply adjust the figures more regularly. That would also be good for pigs and chickens. The tables for pigs and chickens are from 2010 and 2012, and I cannot imagine that they are still feeding in exactly the same way as they did fourteen years ago."
The minister can make a decision about the excretion standards herself, without the intervention of the House of Representatives. Does it matter whether she decides this autumn or next year? Not much can be spread now anyway?
"The when certainly matters. The manure production and placement of 2024 will be accounted for in the spring of 2025, but of course we are talking about this current year."
The minister also mentions measures such as better export promotion and the use of an administrative heavyweight to speed up the granting of permits for manure processing plants. Can this really make a difference?
"This export promotion has received little attention in recent years and more assistance with the granting of permits could also really help in my opinion. The real relief must come in the longer term. Renure could possibly be applied as early as 2025. In 2025, preparations can start for matters such as a new derogation and the like, but only in 2026 can something really be done."
So patience…
"Yes, but it does require a restoration of trust, particularly towards Brussels. But also towards the agricultural sector. That is why it is important to be honest. That means, among other things, recognizing that the Netherlands must adhere to the ceiling of 440 million kilos of nitrogen for all sectors together and that Brussels first wants to see that this is enshrined in law. The mutual distribution by sector is, in my opinion, something that Brussels will not worry about that much. They simply want clarity about the total number of livestock in the Netherlands."
For the various sectors in the Netherlands, this may feel a little different. Everyone wants to be treated more or less equally. If different discount percentages are proposed on animal and phosphate rights when trading, this can feel unpleasant.
"I think that the minister is trying to take those feelings into account with her proposal, and she should take into account the recent ruling by the Council of State, which calls for a lower discount to be applied to poultry and pigs. The minister is doing this by also looking at the companies that have already stopped in the meantime."
It seems that pig and poultry farmers will have to make more concessions.
"I don't want to get into that too much. They should actually try to work that out with LTO or with the sector. Former Minister of Agriculture Piet Adema, under pressure from the House of Representatives, also sought scope to spare the dairy farming sector a little more. If you take everything together and also include the technical solutions for the intensive sectors, the final differences are not that great. The minister outlines more scope for everyone, but we will have to be patient. Real hard shrinkage is probably not even necessary if you look at what has already been done in 2024 (the livestock population is already smaller). With the additional announced buy-out round, I hardly foresee any hard measures anymore. What that additional buy-out scheme will look like, remains to be seen for a while."