Manure market looks quieter, but long winter ahead

Thanks to the good spreading conditions and the high manure prices, maximum liquid manure has been placed where possible in the autumn. This is now noticeable according to manure transporters, who indicate that it is relatively quiet in the manure sales. Meat pig liquid manure is still running as usual, but cattle liquid manure is offered to a limited extent. It is not so strange for the time of year, but the sales are very different from last year at this time. The pressure was full on then. 

That is different now, says a manure transporter in the southeast of the country. "You can't say that there is little cattle manure or that there will be no supply soon, but the high pressure is off at the moment. Many livestock farmers can manage for a while and it will take a while before they start transporting manure again." This is also noticed by others, with some manure transporters and contractors not even loading cattle manure or making appointments this week. Thanks to the favorable weather conditions, solid manure is being used. Previously, demand was somewhat lower for the time of year, which is probably due to the limited space available. As much use as possible was made of cattle manure thanks to the favorable prices for arable farmers.

Manure market development uncertain
The fact that manure sales are relatively calm does not mean that manure prices will remain stable or even go in a different direction. On the contrary, prices have been slowly increasing since the end of the spreading season, both for pig manure and cattle manure. This is clearly reflected in the weekly manure notes from DCA Market Intelligence. This is mainly due to the additional costs for storing and transporting manure, the typical winter rates that we see every winter. In addition, arable farmers with storage and/or pits are aiming for the highest possible price to receive manure. Increasing prices currently has little to do with pressure or supply. The result is that up to now, a few euros have been added to the manure prices of last summer. "I have to go up to calculate the extra transport," says a manure transporter. 

With the current market, it is difficult to estimate how the manure market will continue to develop this winter. Statistically, manure prices continue to rise during the winter months until they can be spread, but that does not necessarily have to be the case this year. Various manure intermediaries indicate that prices are at such a level that they are barely or no longer affordable and that they cannot go any higher. In addition, the situation is very different from last autumn, when the pressure felt higher and the manure storages seemed to be more full than is the case now. 

On the other hand, the placement space will decrease further due to the phasing out of the derogation and the reduction of the placement space for nitrogen in NV areas next year. In addition, there will continue to be political uncertainty, which can also work to the advantage of placement space. Although that is not obvious at the moment. In any case, much will depend on the spring, as was the case in the past two seasons. The wet springs are still fresh in the memory of many, but with an early and relatively dry spring, the manure sales can go quickly. Certainly with the current price level, the interest in and demand for manure will be high in the spring. The result is that manure prices can then also drop quickly. However, that remains guesswork at the moment, and the winter months have yet to begin. But that this is possible is something that is alive in the sector. 

Winter rates
The weekly collection contributions of DCA Market Intelligence (MI) are increasing slightly this week. This applies to both cattle and pig manure. The average price of the southern sales regions is €37,17 per tonne. Cattle manure is on average €32,67 per tonne in the southern regions combined. In the Barneveld region, for example, this is lower at €31,50 per tonne. The winter rates - the extra costs for transport and storage - are being passed on and this is slowly filtering through, just like in previous weeks. 

Manure disposal costs of dairy farms have doubled since 2022
DCA MI, which compiles the manure prices weekly, reported yesterday about the manure prices that have risen to record highs in recent weeks. Manure disposal costs have increased to such an extent in recent months that pig farms are paying an average of 70% to 75% more this year alone to get rid of liquid manure than the average in 2022. Manure disposal costs for dairy farms have more than doubled (+101%) in this period compared to the 2022 average.