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Milk supply less tight, but appearances can be deceiving

14 October 2024 - Wouter Baan

At first glance, the decline in Dutch milk supply in September is considerably less than a month earlier. However, if we zoom in on the figures, it becomes clear that the tight supply situation is indeed continuing.

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The Dutch milk supply last month amounted to 1.046.990 tons, according to figures from RVO. Compared to the same month last year, this is a decrease of 2,66%. This means that the decrease seems to be less severe than in August, when a 4% contraction was visible compared to a year earlier. But appearances can be deceiving. In September last year, the Dutch milk supply plummeted and fell below the 2022 level for the first time that month. In other words: the comparison reference in September is clearly tighter than a month earlier. 

The supply figures in September are again the lowest in ten years and, like last month, are below the level since the end of the quota era in 2015.

Lower daily production
With an average of 4,4%, the fat percentage in milk was slightly higher last month than last year. With 35.499 tonnes of milk, the average daily production in September was lower than the previous month, when an average of 35.696 tonnes was produced. The seasonal decline in milk supply usually continues until early November. It is now clear that the Netherlands will very likely through Poland is knocked off the podium as the third largest milk producer in the European Union.

Tight spot market
The fact that the Dutch milk supply is low is also evident from the tight supply situation on the spot market. Dutch spot milk was sold at prices above €60 per 100 kilos at the end of September. In the meantime, prices have fallen again, in line with the lower prices for butter and cheese. But spot milk prices are still well above the payout prizes that dairy farmers receive.

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