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US milk supply growth slowing again

22 October 2024 - Wouter Baan

US milk supply in August exceeded last year's level for the first time in months. A month later, there is still an increase, but the growth is slowing down somewhat. Milk prices, on the other hand, are continuing to rise. 

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At 7,92 million tonnes, the supply volume last month was 0,2% above last year's level. This means that growth is slowing down slightly, as the lead in August was still 0,5%. In the months before that, there was a slight lag. Only in June was the difference slightly larger, when a decline of 1,5% was visible. This is all evident from figures from the USDA. 

The relatively stable milk supply is a result of a stable American dairy herd. At 8,89 million animals, the number last month was only 20.000 lower than a year earlier. The production per cow has increased somewhat, which explains the slight increase in milk supply.

It is striking that production in Texas, the fourth largest dairy state in the US in terms of volume, was 7,8% above last year's level in August. In California, the largest dairy state, a significant increase of 2,3% is also visible. On the east coast of the country, in large dairy states such as Wisconsin and New York, production is actually lagging behind compared to 2023. 

Milk price up
As in Europe, milk prices are also on the rise in the US. The US class III milk price, based on the valorisation of cheese, rose to $23,60 per CWT in August. Converted to European standards, this is a payout price of over €47 per 100 kilos. This level theoretically encourages dairy farmers to increase production in the coming months.  

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