DCA liquid dairy listings should bounce back

Strangely enough, most quotations for commodity milk powders are also falling, while the futures market is pointing in the opposite direction. This is certainly the case for skimmed milk powder. For the first quarter, prices of €2.800 per tonne and more are even being quoted.

Expectations on the futures market are positive, while the physical market apparently still has some doubts and there is a wide variety of expectations.

In absolute terms, the quotations for cream and butter are the biggest losers. Cream loses €450 per ton dry matter this week (-4,16%) but the quotation is still well above €10.000 per ton. Butter loses €235 per ton (-2,94%) but is still at €7.755 per ton.

Meanwhile, the futures market is speculating on a sharp price drop to possibly €6.500 per tonne for the first quarter. The current market does not yet provide any evidence for this. Also, the stocks of product are still very small.

The cheese market is very quiet in the meantime. The DCA quotations are also almost all stable. That has usually been different in recent weeks, but apparently the cheese manufacturers have also decided to reduce production, reportedly in favor of butter/cream and concentrate. An indication of this is also the high price for whey concentrate.

This is currently the only liquid commodity whose price is still really on the rise. Although also partly driven by the good demand for highly concentrated whey powders.  

How prices will develop in the coming weeks is difficult to say. However, it can be expected that there will be additional fluctuations in the coming weeks, with Christmas and New Year approaching.