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EU sees growth in milk production turn into decline
European milk production is moving towards a turning point in the coming period up to 2035. That is when the annual decline in the number of cows is no longer compensated by the annual growth in production per cow.
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The latter will go increasingly slower, according to the EU. a new study about medium-term developments. The plus of 0,9% per year now will turn into a minus of 0,2% per year.
According to the (officials of) the European Commission, the increasingly strict environmental measures in most Western European states are causing milk production to gradually come under further pressure and decline. In this context, the Commission specifically mentions the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark.
As a result, not only will the number of cows continue to decrease, but the production per cow will also be able to decrease. In the newer/younger EU member states in the eastern part of the EU, environmental policy is still a lot less strict and there is also more room for production growth.
The EU dairy herd is expected to decline by 2035% by 11. In the last ten years, roughly 1,7% of global milk production has been traded, and in the coming period up to 2035 this percentage is expected to decrease to 1,4%. Nevertheless, Europe will remain a leading trading bloc when it comes to dairy. Although a considerable amount of milk is already used in cheese production, this will not decrease in the coming years. On the contrary, much more milk will go into the cheese vat, while the potential of whey will be milked even more.
The price of raw milk will not return to the level before 2022, but will remain high. This is also necessary, because the rising price actually just reflects inflation. A real increase in price is not on the agenda.