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Trump risks damage to US dairy farming

24 January 2025 - Klaas van der Horst

U.S. dairy farms could lose $4 billion in revenue over the next four years if President Donald Trump follows through on his threats to deport illegal workers and impose high trade tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. The school milk system is also under discussion. 

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This was stated by agricultural researcher Charles Nicholson of New York's Cornell University during an agricultural conference at that university.
The researcher points out that according to various data, about 50% of the staff on dairy farms, especially on the larger ones, consists of migrants with questionable documents. Deportation of this group would be a big blow to milk production, because a lot of work can no longer be done.

Another danger is a significant drop in agricultural exports. If President Trump were to impose high tariffs on imports from China, Canada, Mexico and perhaps a number of other countries, it would be unrealistic to expect this to go unanswered. American exports, including dairy, would also take a hit. 

School milk system
A third risk is that many Republicans want to cut government funding for school lunches and food assistance for the underprivileged. It is now estimated that about 8 percent of all dairy in the US is sold through the school milk system.

Dairy farms have something to fear from Trump's agenda, the study found. Dairy sales may not bring in as much financial return as many other industries, but dairy farms (and other agricultural businesses) give back to the local economy by providing spending and jobs in rural areas, according to Cornell University.

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