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Analysis Milk

Bird flu continues to weigh on California milk production

28 January 2025 - Alex Jurvillier

US milk supply was below last year’s level for the second month in a row in December. As in November, the sharp decline in production in California is striking, as a result of bird flu. A new variant of the virus has now emerged in the largest dairy state. 

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In the last month of the year, the 24 largest dairy states in the US produced 8.162.850 tons of milk. Compared to the same month in 2023, this is a decrease of 0,4%. In California, the largest dairy state in the country, there was a decrease of 6,8% in December. Although this is quite significant, the decrease in November was larger at 9,2%. The decrease in California is currently being compensated for by higher production in other large dairy states such as Idaho, Michigan, New York and especially Texas. 

California struggles with bird flu
Meanwhile, a new variant of the virus has emerged on a poultry farm in California. The H5N9 variant is rarer and different from the previously detected H5N1 variant. The extent to which this poses a threat to dairy farming remains to be seen. In the past 30 days, the H5N1 variant has been detected at 29 dairy farms, the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) reported in an update yesterday. The continued rapid spread despite the measures taken is a mystery to experts. The only other state where a new case has been reported in the same time frame is Michigan.

In total, 726 California dairy farms have been infected in the past five months. That is well over half of the number of dairy farms in this state, which has a total of 1,7 million cows. On average, a farm has more than 1.700 cows. Earlier, California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency to contain the virus more quickly. Due to the rapid spread, it is also called 'covid for cows'. In the meantime, 162 farms have recovered and are therefore exempt from quarantine.

Heel 2024
With the release of the December data by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), 2024 is complete. It shows that the 24 largest dairy states produced just below the level of a year earlier. Total milk supply for 2024 was 98.305.260. Most months of 2024 production was slightly below the level of 2023. 

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