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US dairy farmers increasingly concerned about Trump

3 February 2025 - Klaas van der Horst - 7 comments

Dairy farmers and the dairy industry in the US are increasingly concerned about the actions of President Donald Trump. It is not only his policies towards people in the US illegally that they are concerned about, but also his tariff policies towards neighboring countries.

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Many rural people voted for Trump as the new US president, but his deportation policy of undocumented people is causing increasing concern.

Immigrants provide 80% of milk
At a recent dairy conference in New Mexico, attendees were reminded that the U.S. dairy industry is heavily dependent on cheap labor, often filled by undocumented immigrants, mostly Mexicans and other Latin Americans. A study dating back to 2015 estimated that immigrants do 50 percent of the work on U.S. dairy farms and account for 80 percent of milk production. According to researcher Rob Hagevoort of the University of New Mexico, these figures have only increased in recent years. An overzealous restocking policy could therefore cripple the U.S. dairy industry. 

Take care of documents
The American dairy farmers federation NMPF therefore advises farmers and also dairy employers to ask for papers from as many employees as possible, whether it is passports, driver's licenses or other documents that can confirm their identity. It can all help to keep people from being deported and problems with keeping the business running.

Concern about counter-actions
The additional import tariffs that Trump announced just before the weekend for products from Mexico and Canada are also a cause for concern. On the one hand, farmers support Trump's efforts to be able to export more dairy products, such as to Canada. However, many fear that the current tariff actions could have the opposite effect. For example, with regard to dairy exports to Canada. The US has more to lose than Canada. The Americans export almost $1,1 billion in dairy (products) to Canada, while Canada exports less than $355 million to the US. However, Trump is irritated by the Canadian system of production control for dairy and also criticizes the Canadian protection policy for its own farmers.

Protection Policy
His trade representative Howard Lutnick said last week that Canadian policy is "extremely bad" (very bad) will work out for American farmers and that the Canadians should therefore be tackled. Whether that will succeed is the question and if the US pushes too hard, Canada could retaliate with high tariffs on American dairy. In addition, the US also has various market protection measures for its own dairy farmers.

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