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Analysis roughage

Betting whether cows can go outside early

18 March 2025 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

Bargain hunters have little honour to gain in the fodder trade. Straw in particular remains at a good price. There is not much trade in silage grass and maize. In contrast to last year with a very wet spring, the manure is now applied on time, and it almost seems as if livestock farmers are already cautiously anticipating an early grazing season.

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In terms of bearing capacity, the soil can take a lot more than last year at this time when it remained wet. Inside, from behind the window, it feels like spring with the sun. When you come outside, it is not entirely easy with the bitter east wind. In addition, night frost is still the order of the day. As a result, the grass is not really getting going yet and in many places a bit of a brown veil remains hanging over the meadow. It is only mid-March and if there is a bit of temperature, it can quickly look different, but that we will have an early spring by definition is by no means a certainty.

However, some livestock farmers and riding schools seem to assume that the cattle will be able to go outside in time. The demand for both silage and straw is fairly quiet according to forage traders. There was not much trade in silage anyway because enough was harvested last year. However, the DCA Indicative Price for silage remains stable at €80 per tonne. Sellers are quite stuck and are more of the 'better off than off' school.

Short supply of straw
The supply of straw is not very large. A lot of straw has already been promised from the usual suppliers in the Netherlands, Germany and France. Straw can be obtained from further away, but then the transport costs are high. You also do not always know what you are getting from an unknown supplier and for that reason some traders therefore keep a slightly higher lean. "If there are a few loads of straw with a lot of stones, you want to be able to solve that neatly for your customer and you have to take that into account with your margins", according to a trader. The DCA Indicative Price for both wheat and barley straw remains stable at €185 per tonne.

Grass seed hay was hard to come by all season, but now that we are approaching the end of the season, a lot is suddenly popping up. There is also demand for grass seed hay, but matching supply and demand is sometimes not easy. The DCA Indicative Price for grass seed hay is taking a step back this week to €165 per tonne. In meadow hay, it is mainly the permanent work that continues. According to a trader, a nice protein-rich alternative for meadow hay is alfalfa hay. This is quite easy to obtain from France and Germany. The DCA Indicative Price for meadow hay is slightly higher this week at €195 per tonne.

Silage maize is just going along. "When you think it's going to be very quiet, some customers will show up for maize, but it's not really busy," says a trader. The DCA Indicative Price for silage maize is taking a step back this week to €80 per tonne.

Commotion in by-products
The by-product market is in turmoil. However, the major declines are in the liquid residual flows that mainly find their way to pig farming. The solid products such as potato chips or brewers' grains remain more stable. There are some differences between suppliers. One has to pull a little harder to find a buyer for what becomes available, while other suppliers find the market reasonably balanced. The DCA Indicative Price for brewers' grains this week comes out at €3,40 per percent dry matter. Feed potatoes remain stable at €50 per tonne.

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