Analysis milk
Milk price at crossroads: another top year or not?
The milk price development seems to have reached a crossroads. The downward price spiral that has been in place since the beginning of January in the payment of milk money seems to have been broken. Although dairy giants such as Arla and FrieslandCampina are not yet showing this in their payments to farmers. DMK and subsidiary DOC Kaas are the first to react. Perhaps it is not entirely coincidental that the latter are now taking the lead. German dairy prices seem to have been at least as high as Dutch prices for some time now. Butter and cheese prices in Germany, as DCA Markets sees them, are relatively high. This is also evident from the data as displayed by the dairy exchange in Kempten.
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Perhaps it is not entirely coincidental that the latter are now taking the lead. German dairy prices have been at least as high as Dutch prices for some time now.
The increase in the milk price which DOC Kaas passed on this week for March, runs synchronously with a similar step at parent company DMK. It notes a performance price of €52,29 (without Vlog surcharge, at 4,1% fat and 3,5% protein). Converted to Dutch contents, this corresponds almost exactly to the €54,08 that DOC Kaas pays as a base price for March. The maximum milk price of DMK including Haltungsstufe surcharge amounts to €55,29. DMK expresses confidence in the market.
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The German dairy industry also assumes more broadly that 2025 will be another year with high milk prices. This was clearly stated last week at the Berliner Milchforum, although no parallel has yet been drawn with 2022. Companies such as FrieslandCampina and Arla have so far kept a low profile. When presenting the annual figures for 2024, the management of FrieslandCampina was even quite reserved when it came to the prospects for this year. Most processors have so far taken a cautious course.
It is to be expected that the tone will change here soon. The Belgian Milcobel also sees in the latest milk price report that there is a more positive turn in the market, but has not yet succeeded in converting this directly into extra milk money.