US milk production still higher after correction

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), milk production in the top 24 states in February was 7,7 million tons, a decrease of 2,56% compared to the previous year. The number of dairy cows in these states averaged 8,96 million, an increase of 0,84% ​​compared to February 2024.

Although the published figures indicate a decrease in milk production per cow of 3,37% to 859,56 kilos per animal, this does not take into account the leap year. Corrected for the extra day in 2024, average daily production increased by 0,9% compared to the previous year, from 272.626 tonnes per day in 2024 to 275.152 tonnes per day in 2025.

California shrinks, Texas grows
In California, milk production in February was 1,53 million tons, a decrease of 7,07% compared to the previous year. Adjusted for the leap year, the decrease is less, namely 3,75%. Texas recorded a milk production of 631.850 tons in February, an increase of 2,35% year-on-year. Adjusted for the leap year, the growth amounts to 6,01%. This is due to both a 5,89% increase in the herd (to 683.000 animals) and a slight increase in milk production per cow (+0,1%). The growth of milk production in Texas is partly driven by higher milk prices and new processing capacity.

Outlook 2025
According to the USDA, total U.S. milk production is expected to increase 2025 percent to 0,13 million tons in 102,6. Factors supporting this growth include higher milk prices, which are driving productivity improvements. In addition, lower feed costs are reducing operational costs.

For the first quarter, the USDA is forecasting an average milk price of $51,37 per 100 kg, up 13,83% from last year. However, for the year as a whole, it is forecast to decline 4,47% to $47,62 per 100 kg, due to expected price declines starting in the second quarter.

Challenges remain with ongoing concerns about avian influenza (H5N1). A new national milk surveillance system has been implemented in 28 states, which together account for 65% of the national production. However, a significant surveillance gap remains. In the past 30 days, new cases of avian influenza were reported on 8 farms in California, 6 in Idaho and 2 in Nevada.

Trade tensions with Canada
In addition, the trade war is a concern. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened retaliatory tariffs on Canadian dairy products, citing Canadian import tariffs of up to 250%. However, these tariffs only apply to imports above the quota limit. At the moment, all U.S. dairy exports still enter Canada tariff-free, because the quota has not been fully used.

The US government has set an April 2 deadline for possible global retaliatory tariffs, bringing trade tensions back to the forefront.